We won Independence from the British, but not from the Indian monsoon

Weatherwalas, like Skymet, who had earlier this year predicted a good monsoon – or 100% of the long-term average – have now changed their tune and are saying that in August and September, the last two months of the rainy season in India there will be a seven to eight per cent deficit.

This could be bad news for farmers, who constitute over 70% of the country’s population. A bad monsoon for farmers means a bad monsoon for the national economy, which depends a lot on rural demand for everything ranging from tractors to products of everyday use, like tea and soap.

And if a bad monsoon is bad for the economy, it is bad for the government, particularly if the next year is an election year, which 2019 is.

A bad monsoon could have far-reaching political implications, in that farmers could face even greater economic distress than they do now, and take out their anger and despair by voting against the party, or parties, in power, which in this case is the BJP-led NDA. This, if it happens, could lead to political instability, which in turn could cause an erosion of investor confidence, which would undermine the economy, with resultant growth in unemployment, which has already reached crucial levels.

A bad monsoon is the beginning of a vicious circle, or vicious spiral, for the country, economically and politically. Yet India, with its population of 1.3 billion, is dependent on a climatic factor which seems to be becoming increasingly erratic and unreliable.

To protect ourselves from the whims of the rain gods which continue to hold us to ransom over 70 years after we won independence, we need to launch a nation-wide programme of massive irrigation works, which could involve the controversial proposal of linking rivers.

That’ll take years, perhaps decades to accomplish. Till then it appears that all we can do is keep our collective fingers crossed and pray the monsoon doesn’t become a non-event, a non-soon.