Expert Views: RBI raises key rate to 6.5 percent, retains 'neutral' stance

Reuters  |  BENGALURU 

BENGALURU (Reuters) - The on Wednesday raised interest rates for the second straight meeting, but retained its "neutral" stance as it aimed to contain while not choking growth.

The RBI's Committee (MPC) raised the repo rate by 25 basis points to 6.50 percent. It is the first time since October 2013 that the rate has been increased at consecutive policy meetings.

In June, the MPC also increased the key rate by 25 bps.

The rate action was in line with a poll last week, which showed 37 of 63 economists expecting a rate increase.

The reverse repo rate was also raised by 25 basis points to 6.25 percent.

COMMENTARY:

DHANANJAY SINHA, HEAD OF INSTITUTIONAL RESEARCH, EMKAY GLOBAL FINANCIAL SERVICES LTD, MUMBAI

"We were expecting rate hikes to happen, and the seems to have taken a positive view on the growth momentum. I think the rate hike decision is fairly justified based on the assessment of various factors which influence

Also, we seem to be clearly following the core trend which is on the rising side... which is good. The increase in commodity prices, the rupee depreciation, higher rural spending would all affect inflation.

The rupee depreciation has implications on inflation and liquidity in the markets. However, right now, its impact on liquidity is larger and more relevant in terms of decisions."

ANAGHA DEODHAR, ECONOMIST, ICICI SECURITIES, MUMBAI:

"The hike was expected, but what is surprising is the stance has remained "neutral". We were expecting that since this is the second consecutive hike in two policies, the stance would be changed to "tightening".

They have not quantified the impact of MSP (minimum support prices) on inflation, or when MSP will start affecting inflation - whether it will be in October or earlier than that. I would have liked to see some clarity on that.

We are expecting at least one more hike this financial year.

I don't think rupee will be a key factor in the Reserve Bank of India's rate decision because they have repeatedly said they do not target any specific value of rupee - they just want to curb volatility.

The high-frequency indicators show that growth has been pretty good - we expect Q1 growth to be between 7.6 percent and 7.7 percent. With the implementation of MSP hike, I expect H2 inflation will be higher than the initial forecast."

SHASHANK MENDIRATTA, INDIA ECONOMIST, ANZ BANK, BANGALORE

"The tone of policy seems slightly on the hawkish side despite RBI tinkering only marginally with its second-half inflation projection. The RBI continues to reiterate long-standing risks to inflation and in remain a key risk.

HRA revision by the is another item on the RBI's radar. Another factor is MSP. A part of the MSP increase has already been incorporated by the RBI in June inflation projection, and the marginal increase in inflation projection this time is due to higher than historical revision in MSP.

The rupee will remain under pressure due to worsening domestic fundamentals and capital outflows.

The case for another hike is not off the table, there could be one in October."

(Reporting By Aparajita Saxena, and Sharnya G in Bengaluru, Editing by Sherry Jacob-Phillips)

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First Published: Wed, August 01 2018. 15:23 IST