Initiation of a fresh low-pressure area over East India, signalling fresh burst of rains, has been delayed mainly due to the longer-than-expected shelf life of a predecessor over Uttar Pradesh.
India Met Department (IMD) expects the fresh one to form over East Uttar Pradesh over the next two days. A preparatory circulation hovers above the western parts of adjoining Bihar this morning.
RAIN FOR EAST, N-E
Under its influence, the IMD has forecast fairly widespread to widespread rainfall with isolated heavy to very heavy falls likely over Bengal, Bihar, North-East Madhya Pradesh, East Uttar Pradesh, Jharkhand, and the North-Eastern States over the next two to three days.
Subdued rainfall may be observed over many parts of West, Central and Peninsular India during this period, though the ensemble model of the US Climate Prediction Centre foresees fresh activity in the Bay of Bengal.
According to the US agency, the Bengal, Odisha and North Andhra Pradesh coasts would need to be monitored for signals for a fresh circulation or low-pressure area during the next week.
The IMD seems to agree with an extended forecast (yet to be verified) suggesting the formation of a 'low' over the North Bay by August 6 and its movement towards North-West India.
It could bring a fresh round of heavy to very heavy rainfall for Bengal, Odisha, Jharkhand, East and West Uttar Pradesh, Delhi, Chandigarh and Haryana. The West Coast also could come alive during this phase.
Widespread rainfall activities are likely over Uttarakhand, Uttar Pradesh and along the west coast.
RAIN DEFICIT SCENE
Meanwhile, heavy to very heavy rain has been forecast over East Uttar Pradesh, Assam and Meghalaya for today while it will be heavy over Uttarakhand, West Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, hills of Bengal, Sikkim, Arunachal Pradesh, Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram, Tripura, Coastal Karnataka, South Interior Karnataka and Kerala.
West Uttar Pradesh has managed to get back into a minor surplus after sustained rainfall over the past week or so but East Uttar Pradesh (-32 per cent) and Bihar (-29 per cent) still feature some deficit.
So too Jharkhand (-26 per cent) and all North-Eastern States. Bengal has a deficit of -12 per cent but falls within the 'rainfall normal' category under the IMD parameters.
The forecast rainfall over the next four to five days may help improve the situation in both East and North-East India to some extent but not without attendant prospects of flooding and landslips.
The IMD forecast for tomorrow (Tuesday) too speaks about prospects of heavy to very heavy rain over East Uttar Pradesh, Assam and Meghalaya, while it would be heavy rain at isolated places likely over Uttarakhand, West Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, hills of Bengal, Sikkim, Andaman & Nicobar Islands, Arunachal Pradesh, Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram, Tripura, Coastal and South Interior Karnataka and Kerala.