
A new study was released Monday on Sen. Bernie Sanders’ health-care plan, and there are two ways it’s generally being reported.
One is that the study, from the Mercatus Center, finds that the Medicare for All Act would cost the federal government $32.6 trillion during the first 10 years of implementation. A similar study from the Urban Institute puts the price tag at $32 trillion.
The senator himself tweeted out a favorable comparison of the costs of his plan with that of the current system.
Even a Koch brothers-funded attempt to trash Medicare for All can't hide the truth: Medicare for All will lead to a $2 TRILLION REDUCTION in national health expenditures over 10 years.
— Bernie Sanders (@SenSanders) July 30, 2018
That’s trillion with a “T.” https://t.co/eOfd29cDoa
Some estimates have put the current projected 10-year expenditure on health care as high as $49 trillion.
Of course, it’s worth noting who actually pays for the current system. According to the Census Bureau, two-thirds of health care is paid for privately. Overwhelmingly, the private coverage is employer-based.
So, using round numbers here, what Sanders wants is a system that takes a $24 trillion expense (admittedly, a tax-deductible one) off employers’ books.
Now, would employers give that money to employees in the form of higher wages? Some, probably. It would be interesting to have a real-world experiment where employer costs are sharply reduced and see what they do....
Wait a minute — THERE IS ONE. It’s called the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act.
Did wages go up? The early evidence is, at best, mixed.
Here’s what Sen. Sanders says:
Looks like that $4,000 pay raise Trump promised working people from his tax cuts was just another lie he told to help enrich profitable corporations and billionaires. https://t.co/MI8NAwQ99x
— Bernie Sanders (@SenSanders) July 24, 2018
Bernie Sanders, in practice, might as well be Bernie Icahn.
Yes, in a world where such legislation became law, corporations would face higher taxes, partly from an inevitable increase in the rate, but also, as pointed out earlier, from fewer deductions, since they wouldn’t be providing employee health care anymore.
But the corporate tax base just isn’t big enough to be the main payer. Over the last 50 years, corporate income taxes have accounted for about 9% of total government revenue, and it’s about 6% now. And if companies aren’t paying, that by definition means individuals will.
It’s important to note this shareholder giveaway is not just a proposal from Sanders — it’s endorsed by all the likely Democratic Party presidential candidates, including Sens. Elizabeth Warren, Kamala Harris and Cory Booker.
What the Mercatus study really shows is how wrenching a change the Sanders proposal would be. If Obamacare wasn’t quite the “if you like your doctor, you can keep him” as advertised, most Americans did keep their same health plan. Berniecare would put everyone onto the federal government plan.
Medicare for All, for a number of reasons, is not politically likely even if a blue wave puts Democrats in control of both chambers of Congress. But if it ever comes to pass — you might want to buy the dip.
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