HOW can the value of funds parked by Indians in Swiss banks be estimated? Have these deposits and funds bulged or have holdings by Indians dipped during the four years of NDA rule? These questions assume significance against the backdrop of finance minister Piyush Goyal’s claim that Indians money in Swiss banks fell by 80 per cent during the last four years as against earlier reports of a 50 per cent increase in 2017 alone. For 2017, Goyal reported 34.5 per cent fall in Indian deposits with Swiss banks.

According to details provided by Goyal, Indians’ money in Swiss banks nosedived sharply to $524 million in 2017 from $2,234 million four years back. Predictably, the minister attributed this big dip to an assiduous campaign undertaken by the Narendra Modi government.

However, this claim goes contrary to an earlier report of the Swiss National Bank that reflected a huge surge of 50 per cent in deposits by Indians in Swiss banks —with the figure quoted at over Rs 7,000 crore in 2017 alone.

It is possible that both these figures are right given the way they are computed and reported by different governments, banks and official agencies. Goyal’s figures follow the Locational Banking Statistics (LBS) put out by SNB that excludes inter-bank transfers, money or funds Indian companies have in Swiss banks’ Indian branches etc. Swiss authorities now say that LBS was the right measure to unaccounted Indian money in their banks within their country.

Earlier reports based on SNB annual banking statistics apparently also included the volume of business Swiss banks conducted in India. Swiss Ambassador Andreas Baum’s letter that is in the public domain endorses the Indian government’s position that “all Indian money in Swiss banks may not be black money.” But, both sets of numbers leave lots of questions unanswered — though a clearer picture may emerge when Swiss authorities commence sharing financial information beginning September 2019.

Why is it that the Indian government continues to stonewall demands for making public three separate studies commissioned by then finance minister Pranab Mukherjee by three different organisations. The findings in studies done by the National Institute of Public Finance and Policy, National Council of Applied Economic Research and National Institute of Financial Management will have to be put in the public domain to lend credence to the figures emerging from Swiss authorities. If Indian funds in Swiss banks was peanuts, as made out by Goyal, then how does one explain US-based think tank, Global Financial Integrity (GFI) estimates of $ 770 billion that were with Swiss banks during 2005-14?

In fact, these funds apparently entered India through different channels, including hawala transactions, foreign direct investment (FDI) or round tripping by those in international trade or tax havens. In fact, GFI estimates were generously put to use by the BJP in its 2014 Lok Sabha campaign to demonise the Congress, its cohorts and expose reported nexus with fraudsters. Prime minister Modi may take the lead in coming up with a position paper on black money after being in office for four years. Indian black money within the country and abroad may have to be detailed with a comprehensive databank with names and amounts.

Not much has been shared by the government on the findings of the Special Investigation Taskforce headed by justice MB Shah that was constituted at the first meeting of the Union cabinet after prime minister Modi took office. The government will have to present before the nation the ‘rich haul’ it made in terms of black money from within and abroad in the last four years and detail each case. Otherwise, people cannot be blamed for believing that Modi only used ‘black money’ as a propaganda vehicle to come to power.