A defiant low-pressure area sitting smack over South Uttar Pradesh and its neighbourhood on Wednesday evening promises to pour torrents over the region during the next two days.
A remnant of an incoming depression, it took its own time to weaken two rounds to become a conventional ‘low.’ But it has defied a natural death, and is instead threatening to get a new lease of life — thanks to an active monsoon in the North.
May stay put
This happens at a time when monsoon easterlies from the Bay of Bengal have struck a sustained pace and are running into friendly, moist south-westerlies fanned in from the Arabian Sea across Gujarat and Rajasthan.
Their interaction is a pure recipe for intense precipitation, with Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Himachal Pradesh, Haryana, Chandigarh and Delhi — all nursing rain deficits, set to get heavy rains.
In the process, Delhi and its neighbourhood will also witness the rare but not entirely impossible scenario of a monsoon ‘low’ hovering above, adding fresh muscle and, importantly, staying put.
Monsoon ‘lows’ that are either slow in movement or, worse, drop anchor at a place — a prospect not entirely ruled out in this instance — need to be put under strict watch for their rain-generating capacity.
Longer shelf life
The India Met Department (IMD) has, on Wednesday, only confirmed the longer shelf life of the system, which BusinessLine had hinted at already. In fact, the ‘low’ could become ‘more marked’ (intense).
The Met has forecast fairly widespread to widespread rains with isolated heavy falls over Jammu & Kashmir, Punjab and Madhya Pradesh during the next three days. The North-Eastern States might start making delayed gains from Friday.
In fact, the trough has bifurcated, with one end dipping in the North-East Bay, while a branch has sprouted from Bankura to West Assam across the hills of Bengal.
This is a precursor to the movement of the eastern end of the trough from the sea to the land, and should help bring some badly needed intense showers to the North-Eastern States, helping them deal with the mounting deficit.
Overnight on Wednesday, heavy rainfall lashed Assam, Meghalaya and the hills of Bengal as also Uttarakhand, West Uttar Pradesh, West Madhya Pradesh, Haryana, Madhya Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu, Coastal and South Interior Karnataka.
Rain deficits in two Met divisions in the South - Lakshadweep (-40 per cent) and Rayalaseema (-32 per cent) - also have been disconcerting. They would need to wait until the next monsoon pulse to receive their due.