Two years after scrapping the mid-year economic review, the government is planning to bring it back. In fact, preparing and presenting this document will be one of the first tasks given to a new Chief Economic Advisor, whose appointment could be finalized by the end of this month. This is around the same time that incumbent Arvind Subramanian demits office.
The 2018-19 mid-year economic review, if prepared, will be likely released in December or January, ahead of the 2019-20 interim budget in early-February, Business Standard has learnt from senior government sources, who added that the 2018-19 Economic Survey will likely be released before the post-election budget in July.
It is understood that the review will not only present data, trends and commentary on the April-September 2018-19 period and outlook for the rest of the year, but also lists out the economic, social and fiscal achievements of the Narendra Modi government ahead of the 2019 Lok Sabha elections.
“The thinking in Finance Ministry so far is that a mid-year review will be presented this year. That means the 2018-19 survey will be presented after the elections. Had we decided to present the survey on January 31, work would have begun on that by now,” said an official.
“A new Chief Economic Advisor has to be appointed by end-July.
Not only that, some key positions among economic advisors have to be filled in as well. The new CEA will take time getting up to speed. So there is no bandwidth currently, to present an economic survey before the February budget. A mid-year review can be presented, however,” the person said.
Senior Advisor Archana Mathur, who is designated just below Principal Economic Advisor Sanjeev Sanyal, is set to retire in a few months as well, and a replacement will be needed.
With the advancement of the union budget to February 1 from 2017 onwards, the mid-year economic review 2016-17 was scrapped, and wasn’t presented in 2017-18 as well. Instead, Subramanian released the 2016-17 economic survey in two phases i.e on January 31, 2017, and August 11, 2017.
The mid-year economic review was first presented in 2002, even before it was legislatively institutionalized by the FRBM Act. The Finance Ministry website has links to mid-year reviews going back to 2002.
A number of times in the past, incumbent governments have changed their gross domestic product growth and fiscal deficit forecasts in the mid-year review, from the numbers given in preceding budgets and economic surveys.