Daily Grain Market Update (7.18.18)

CORN (December)

 

Yesterday’s Close:  December corn futures finished yesterday’s session up 5 cents, trading in a range of 4 ½ cents.  Funds were estimated buyers of 15,000 contracts. 

 

Fundamentals:  Corn managed to close higher for the second consecutive session in a row, something that has happened only a few times over the last two months.  A bigger drop in crop conditions Monday afternoon was the main catalyst in encouraging some short light short covering yesterday.  Weather is still important, but it will be playing a diminishing role from here on out.  Technicals will start to play a bigger role, especially if the market can continue forming a bottom and come into more of a range.

 

Technicals:  The consecutive closes in positive territory is encouraging for producers and other long participants.  We changed our bias from neutral to neutral/bullish yesterday and believe that we could start to see more positive price action in the near term.  If the bulls can start to see consecutive closes above 360, we could see additional short covering and also new buyers come back into the market now that the “water is warm”....Please sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to view our entire technical outlook and proprietary bias and levels.

 

SOYBEANS (November)

 

Yesterday’s Close:  November soybean futures finished yesterday’s session up 9 cents, trading in a range of 13 ¾ cents.  Funds were estimated buyers of 8,500 contracts. 

 

Fundamentals:  Soybeans have managed to put a tourniquet on prices in hopes of forming a stable and tradable bottom.  With prices at these levels, it negates a large chunk of the tariffs making them competitive to China again, not to mention other global buyers.  There have not been any new headlines with regards to trade.  A large amount of bad news has been priced into the market, if the US and China can come to some sort of agreement closer to the fall (when China typically re-enters the US market) we would expect to see the market catch a firm bid in short order.

 

Technicals:  The market managed to achieve two consecutive positive closes for the first time since the end of May.  This may seem laughable (partly is) but it is a silver lining for us which is why we shifted our bias in yesterday’s report from neutral to neutral/bullish.  We would not be surprised to see a relief rally here, but it needs to develop into more than just relief.  A failure to reclaim some of these technical levels will only lead to....Please sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to view our entire technical outlook and proprietary bias and levels.

 

Wheat (September)

 

Yesterday’s Close:  September wheat finished yesterday’s session up 10 ¼ cents, trading in a range of 16 ½ cents.  Funds were estimated buyers of 9,500 contracts.

 

Fundamentals:  Wheat futures harnessed the positive momentum from corn and beans and was able to catch a bid above resistance yesterday.  Areas of Australia remain relatively dry which has helped provide a near term floor to the market, but the global picture in our mind remains relatively bearish.

 

Technicals:  Though we are longer term bearish, we mentioned in yesterday’s report that a retest of resistance would likely lend hand for another move higher.  That move above resistance warrants a move back towards our more significant pocket which comes in from....Please sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to view our entire technical outlook and proprietary bias and levels.

 

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