Bihar bonhomie

More than for the NDA, the reiteration of the BJP-JDU alliance in Bihar is significant for the Opposition

We have been flagging in these columns for a while now that the Opposition seems far too cock-a-hoop at the prospect of doing well enough in the 2019 General Election to dislodge the BJP/NDA Government. The hopes of the anti-BJP parties seem premised primarily on electoral mathematics and the assumption that a mahagathbandhan or grand Opposition alliance is not only forged in terms of one-on-one contests with BJP/NDA candidates in at least 350 Lok Sabha seats but also works among the ambitious leaders of various Opposition parties and their activists on the ground. Additionally, it presupposes that these parties have the internal discipline and heft to prevent significant rebellions by those denied tickets as many will be if one-on-one contests are to be ensured. But most vitally, it doesn't appropriately factor in a proactive BJP which will pull out all the stops to win again. It is this last-mentioned factor which has been evident in Bihar over the past few days and in Uttar Pradesh a couple of weeks earlier which the Opposition better pay heed to prevent an oops moment for itself come the election results. 

The all-smiles meeting over breakfast between Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar and BJP president Amit Shah has put paid to the speculation that the Janata Dal United and BJP were on the verge of parting ways with Nitish heading back to a resurrected Opposition mahagathbandhan along with Lalu Prasad's RJD and the Congress which swept the last Assembly poll. Not only has the BJP kept ties with its main alliance partner intact, even the rumblings of dissent from smaller members of the NDA in Bihar including Upendra Kushwaha's RLSP have been addressed. Ram Vilas Paswan was anyway firmly in and together this makes for a very formidable NDA in the State which can hope to match or get near the seats it won in the 2014 Lok Sabha poll. An ailing Lalu and his feuding sons with what remains of the Congress in Bihar is unlikely to be a viable electoral alternative with a support base restricted to primarily the Muslim and Yadav communities. What does this development, then, portend for the idea of a nationwide Opposition alliance against the BJP in which Bihar (along with Uttar Pradesh) was to be a key State? In Uttar Pradesh too, meanwhile, the BJP has gone into overdrive both strategically and tactically. In a bid to cause stress in the proposed SP-BSP alliance, party leaders led by Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath have started raising the issue of SC/ST reservations in Aligarh Muslim University which the BJP asserts vociferously is a Central University and therefore must adheres to quotas in educational institutions statutorily applicable. Indeed, Mayawati is being openly asked to clarify the BSP's stand on quotas for Dalits in AMU as is Akhilesh Yadav. As a symbol of the differences of interests between the core support bases of the two parties, Dalits (BSP) and Muslims (SP), this is a strategic move likely to pay off. And its tactical spin-offs in terms of candidate selection, themes of the sub-regional campaigns by the BJP et.al. are yet to come including dropping of more than half its non-performing sitting MPs. In sum, while it may be too early for predictions, the Opposition and more particularly its cheerleaders should be wary of premature articulation.