Market Movers: China vows to retaliate; crude tumbles; all eyes on IIP, inflation data and more
Here’s a lowdown on top macro triggers that may move market on Thursday. This report was compiled from agency feeds.
Trade War: China Vows to Retaliate
After US issued a list of thousands of Chinese goods to be hit with the new tariffs, China accused the United States of bullying and warned it would hit back. The Trump administration has raised the stakes in their trade dispute, threatening 10% tariffs on $200 billion of Chinese goods in a move that rattled global markets. China’s commerce ministry said on Wednesday it was “shocked” and would complain to the World Trade Organisation, but did not immediately say how Beijing would retaliate in the dispute between the world’s two biggest economies.
Brent Crude Tanks 6.9%, Regains 1.35%
Brent crude futures rose 1.35% to $74.38 a barrel after tanking 6.9% overnight, the biggest one-day percentage drop since February 2016 as trade tensions threatened to hurt oil demand and news that Libya would reopen its ports, raised expectations of growing supply. Oil prices fell sharply on news that Libya was suddenly set to restore hundreds of thousands of barrels per day, and the US struck a softer line on Iran sanctions.
IIP, Retail Inflation Out Today
On July 12, the Central Statistics Office (CSO) will release estimates of industrial growth (IIP) for May and retail inflation (CPI) for June. In the backdrop of the recent hike in minimum support prices (MSP), the June inflation reading gains significance, as this will be last inflation data available to the monetary policy committee before its next meeting on August 1, 2018. India’s industrial activity gained pace in April led by manufacturing and mining activity. CPI for May was calculated at 4.87% and the IIP for April was at 4.9%.
India Pips France As Sixth Largest Economy
India has become the world's sixth-biggest economy, pushing France into seventh place, according to updated World Bank figures for 2017. India's gross domestic product (GDP) amounted to $2.597 trillion at the end of last year, against $2.582 trillion for France. But India has a population of around 1.34 billion compared to France's 67 million.
Govt Backs Net Neutrality
The government will soon amend telecom licences to incorporate rules on net neutrality, which will include a bar on blocking or slowing down of content, while allowing fast lanes only for ‘critical’ services and keeping ‘content delivery networks’ out of their ambit. Telecom Commission, the highest decision-making body in the telecom ministry, has approved the new telecom policy and net neutrality recommendations in a meeting on Wednesday.
Cess on Luxury Goods Next?
A group of ministers, tasked by the Goods and Services Tax Council, is considering the option of 1% agri cess on luxury goods that could be levied to deal with unforeseen circumstances in the farm sector. A decision on this cess would be taken after Attorney General of India KK Venugopal gives his opinion, keeping in mind that the architecture of GST regime that subsumes all cess, surcharge, taxes and other levies.
Data Storage Rules
The finance ministry has proposed relaxing a directive from Reserve Bank of India that would compel global payment firms to store customer data only locally, following weeks of intense lobbying by U.S. companies and trade bodies. Easing the proposal would be a relief for firms including MasterCard, Visa and American Express, which fear India’s data onshoring move could cost them millions of dollars and set a precedent for other major governments to implement similar rules.
May to Release Brexit Plan Today
British Prime Minister Theresa May will set out a blueprint on Thursday for what her government calls “a principled and practical Brexit”, putting at its core a plan for a free trade area for goods that has angered many in her party. Her government will publish a so-called white paper policy document on the future relationship, just over two years after Britons voted in a referendum to leave the European Union. It will offer more detail on a position to try to move on with Brexit talks that have all but stalled.
POLICIES & MORE
Top Video
Higher Tax on Petrol, Diesel Cars to Push EVs?
Top Quote
'In FY19 and FY20, Markets Will Go Up 25%-30%'
FUNDAMENTALS
Rupee Up: The rupee closed at 68.77, up 0.07% on Wednesday from 68.82 against the greenback a day earlier.
Long-term Bond Yields Down: Government bonds (G-Secs) rebounded following renewed demand from corporates and banks. The 7.17% 10-year benchmark bond maturing in 2028 rose to Rs 95.37 from Rs 95.19, while its yield moved down to 7.87% from 7.90%. The 6.68% G-Secs maturing in 2031 climbed to Rs 88.92 from Rs 88.72, while its yield edged down to 8.06% from 8.08%.
Shoter-term Bond Yields Down: The 6.84% G-Secs maturing in 2022 gained to Rs 96.0325 from Rs 95.92, while its yield eased to 7.92% from 7.95%. The 7.59% G-Secs maturing in 2026, the 6.65% G-Secs maturing in 2020 and the 8.20% G-Secs maturing in 2022 were also quoted higher at Rs 96.90, Rs 98.45 and Rs 100.82 respectively.
Call Rates Up: The overnight call money rates finished higher at 6.25% from Tuesday's level of 6.05%. It resumed higher at 6.30% and moved in a range of 6.30% and 6.00%.
Liquidity: The Reserve Bank of India, under the Liquidity Adjustment Facility, purchased securities worth Rs 6646 crore in 14-bids at the overnight repo operations at a fixed rate of 6.25% as on Wednesday, while, its sold securities worth Rs 921 crore in 15-bids at the overnight reverse repo auction at a fixed rate of 6.00% as on July 10.
Trade War: China Vows to Retaliate
After US issued a list of thousands of Chinese goods to be hit with the new tariffs, China accused the United States of bullying and warned it would hit back. The Trump administration has raised the stakes in their trade dispute, threatening 10% tariffs on $200 billion of Chinese goods in a move that rattled global markets. China’s commerce ministry said on Wednesday it was “shocked” and would complain to the World Trade Organisation, but did not immediately say how Beijing would retaliate in the dispute between the world’s two biggest economies.
Brent Crude Tanks 6.9%, Regains 1.35%
Brent crude futures rose 1.35% to $74.38 a barrel after tanking 6.9% overnight, the biggest one-day percentage drop since February 2016 as trade tensions threatened to hurt oil demand and news that Libya would reopen its ports, raised expectations of growing supply. Oil prices fell sharply on news that Libya was suddenly set to restore hundreds of thousands of barrels per day, and the US struck a softer line on Iran sanctions.
IIP, Retail Inflation Out Today
On July 12, the Central Statistics Office (CSO) will release estimates of industrial growth (IIP) for May and retail inflation (CPI) for June. In the backdrop of the recent hike in minimum support prices (MSP), the June inflation reading gains significance, as this will be last inflation data available to the monetary policy committee before its next meeting on August 1, 2018. India’s industrial activity gained pace in April led by manufacturing and mining activity. CPI for May was calculated at 4.87% and the IIP for April was at 4.9%.
India Pips France As Sixth Largest Economy
India has become the world's sixth-biggest economy, pushing France into seventh place, according to updated World Bank figures for 2017. India's gross domestic product (GDP) amounted to $2.597 trillion at the end of last year, against $2.582 trillion for France. But India has a population of around 1.34 billion compared to France's 67 million.
Govt Backs Net Neutrality
The government will soon amend telecom licences to incorporate rules on net neutrality, which will include a bar on blocking or slowing down of content, while allowing fast lanes only for ‘critical’ services and keeping ‘content delivery networks’ out of their ambit. Telecom Commission, the highest decision-making body in the telecom ministry, has approved the new telecom policy and net neutrality recommendations in a meeting on Wednesday.
Cess on Luxury Goods Next?
A group of ministers, tasked by the Goods and Services Tax Council, is considering the option of 1% agri cess on luxury goods that could be levied to deal with unforeseen circumstances in the farm sector. A decision on this cess would be taken after Attorney General of India KK Venugopal gives his opinion, keeping in mind that the architecture of GST regime that subsumes all cess, surcharge, taxes and other levies.
Data Storage Rules
The finance ministry has proposed relaxing a directive from Reserve Bank of India that would compel global payment firms to store customer data only locally, following weeks of intense lobbying by U.S. companies and trade bodies. Easing the proposal would be a relief for firms including MasterCard, Visa and American Express, which fear India’s data onshoring move could cost them millions of dollars and set a precedent for other major governments to implement similar rules.
May to Release Brexit Plan Today
British Prime Minister Theresa May will set out a blueprint on Thursday for what her government calls “a principled and practical Brexit”, putting at its core a plan for a free trade area for goods that has angered many in her party. Her government will publish a so-called white paper policy document on the future relationship, just over two years after Britons voted in a referendum to leave the European Union. It will offer more detail on a position to try to move on with Brexit talks that have all but stalled.
POLICIES & MORE
- After getting a go-ahead from the insurance regulator, LIC is preparing itself to complete the 51% acquisition of debt-ridden IDBI Bank by the end of September, sources said. At present, Life Insurance Corporation (LIC) of India is doing due diligence of IDBI Bank, its assets, debt position and fixed assets
- Malaysian healthcare giant IHH Healthcare is poised to win the bid for Fortis Healthcare after it offered to pay Rs 180/share, valuing India’s second-largest hospitals chain at Rs 9,335 crore.
- Lenders may be allowed to change National Company Law Tribunal benches if they face prolonged delays in insolvency resolution cases, according to a proposal being worked out by the ministry of corporate affairs. About 90% of the cases referred to the tribunal under Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code are being handled by benches in New Delhi and Mumbai, which has caused the process to slow down. ransfers will be allowed only to speed up the resolution of cases.
Top Video
Higher Tax on Petrol, Diesel Cars to Push EVs?
Top Quote
'In FY19 and FY20, Markets Will Go Up 25%-30%'
FUNDAMENTALS
Rupee Up: The rupee closed at 68.77, up 0.07% on Wednesday from 68.82 against the greenback a day earlier.
Long-term Bond Yields Down: Government bonds (G-Secs) rebounded following renewed demand from corporates and banks. The 7.17% 10-year benchmark bond maturing in 2028 rose to Rs 95.37 from Rs 95.19, while its yield moved down to 7.87% from 7.90%. The 6.68% G-Secs maturing in 2031 climbed to Rs 88.92 from Rs 88.72, while its yield edged down to 8.06% from 8.08%.
Shoter-term Bond Yields Down: The 6.84% G-Secs maturing in 2022 gained to Rs 96.0325 from Rs 95.92, while its yield eased to 7.92% from 7.95%. The 7.59% G-Secs maturing in 2026, the 6.65% G-Secs maturing in 2020 and the 8.20% G-Secs maturing in 2022 were also quoted higher at Rs 96.90, Rs 98.45 and Rs 100.82 respectively.
Call Rates Up: The overnight call money rates finished higher at 6.25% from Tuesday's level of 6.05%. It resumed higher at 6.30% and moved in a range of 6.30% and 6.00%.
Liquidity: The Reserve Bank of India, under the Liquidity Adjustment Facility, purchased securities worth Rs 6646 crore in 14-bids at the overnight repo operations at a fixed rate of 6.25% as on Wednesday, while, its sold securities worth Rs 921 crore in 15-bids at the overnight reverse repo auction at a fixed rate of 6.00% as on July 10.