Kerala remains the last major state that has resisted the BJP juggernaut over the past five years. It is the only state among those that send at least 10 representatives to the Lok Sabha not to have a BJP member of parliament
The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) needs to move fast to set things right at its Kerala unit as it seeks to make inroads into the state and boost its chances of retaining power in 2019. Kerala BJP doesn’t have a head after Kummanam Rajasekharan was shunted to Mizoram as governor. It is in this context that BJP chief Amit Shah’s visit to Kerala earlier this week concluded with a call for unity and ending party factionalism.
Kerala remains the last major state that has resisted the BJP juggernaut over the past five years. It is the only state among those that send at least 10 representatives to the Lok Sabha not to have a BJP member of parliament. Even in neighbouring Tamil Nadu where the party’s prospects are worsening, it has a MP from Kanyakumari. The BJP’s lack of electoral presence in Kerala is all the more puzzling given the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh’s (RSS) strong base in the state. The RSS has more than 4,100 active/daily shakhas in the state, and yet the momentum has not been converted into electoral votes. To put this in perspective — Gujarat, which has about 1,000 active RSS shakhas, has its fifth consecutive BJP government.
For Shah, under whom the BJP has seen unprecedented expansion, increasing the party’s presence in Kerala will be a priority. It is also necessary to balance the electoral arithmetic given the recent gains made by opposition parties in states such as Punjab and Karnataka. Bear in mind that the BJP will find it challenging to repeat its 2014 feat of winning all the seats in seven states (Chhattisgarh, Delhi, Goa, Gujarat, Himachal Pradesh, Rajasthan and Uttarakhand) and 139 of the 173 seats in other Hindi Belt states. Repeating this would be a tough act to follow — and it is here that new states, especially Kerala, become important. Winning seats here will not only expand the party’s footprint but also partially make up for losses up north.
But it is not going to be easy.
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The Hindu vote in Kerala is largely seen to be with the Left parties. Reducing the CPI(M)’s electoral position in Kerala, as has happened in Bengal, is easier said than done. Even with so much riding for it, the BJP’s track record in Kerala has been unexceptional. It has failed to capitalise on the many failings of the CPI(M)-led LDF government. It will be difficult to pick even one public cause or sentiment against the Pinarayi Vijayan government which the BJP highlighted in the past two years.
Moreover, as Shah’s call to unity shows, state party leaders have not been able to paper over the differences among themselves. There are reports that the RSS and the BJP have not been in sync in the state. The recent bypolls to the Chengannur assembly seat, in which the party came a distant third, exposed the cracks in the state unit. The shunting of Rajasekharan in the heat of the bypolls has increased perceptions of disharmony among state leaders.
Given its current form, it is highly unlikely that the BJP is going to make any gains in the state in the 2019 general elections. Unless it cobbles together a formative coalition, make the right choices in appointing leaders and selecting candidates, the party will have to take cold comfort in its vote percentage once the results come.