BEIJING—China’s customs agency unexpectedly issued trade data that showed growth in exports to the U.S. slowing, though analysts dismissed the figures as part of Beijing’s messaging campaign in its tariff battle with Washington.
The figures released late Monday, which only covered exports to the U.S., came ahead of the scheduled July 13 release of trade data and were denominated in yuan, without accompanying dollar terms. In yuan terms, the data showed growth in Chinese exports to the U.S. ticking down to 5.4% in the January-June period from a year earlier. That is a slowing from the 5.8% pace over the first five months.
Some economists and analysts played down the usefulness of the latest U.S.-specific data, and said they raise further suspicions about the reliability of government statistics. When trade figures in dollar terms are released later this month, exports are expected to have sustained the double-digit growth rates of recent months, the economists and analysts said.
Still, showing that export growth is slowing—at least by some measure—fits with the government’s less confrontational public message that it isn’t seeking a trade fight with the U.S.
“The timing of the release is interesting,” said Yang Weixiao, an economist at Founder Securities . “The government wants to make some compromises to avoid an escalation in trade disputes, although it will never say so.”
The General Administration of Customs didn’t immediately respond to questions about the timing and reasons for the release.
The government’s information office last week released a policy paper, defending China’s record in fulfilling commitments to the World Trade Organization. On Monday, Commerce Minister Zhong Shan wrote in the People’s Daily newspaper that opening the Chinese economy and taking part in the global trade system are “strategic choices” that benefit China’s development and the world’s.
Nerves about a possible trade war have battered China’s stock markets, with the Shanghai Composite Index tumbling 2.5% Monday. The yuan on Tuesday briefly slumped to its weakest level against the U.S. dollar in nearly a year, falling below a key level of 6.7.
China’s trade surplus with the U.S. has been widening even though its total trade surplus has been narrowing, as wealthier Chinese businesses and households import more goods. Economists don’t expect the imbalance—which the Trump administration says was $375 billion in China’s favor last year—to be corrected in the short term, mostly because of robust demand from American consumers and a weakening yuan.
A slowdown in export growth in yuan terms reflects Beijing’s position on the trade fight but won’t placate the U.S., said economist Shuang Ding with Standard Chartered Bank. “The key is not the slowdown of export growth. What Trump wants is to narrow the trade imbalance that is still big and growing.”
In the first major volley in the trade war, the Trump administration is set to impose tariffs of 25% on $34 billion of Chinese imports effective Friday, and Beijing has said that it will match the U.S. tariffs in value. Tariffs on other goods could escalate in the second half of the year, analysts said.
While economists expect those tariffs to dent trade and the Chinese and U.S. economies, recent data suggest that has yet to happen. Instead, some businesses, economists as well as customs and other government officials have said that export orders are being front-loaded.
Orders received in the first half of this year topped last year’s total, said Liu Tian, chief executive of Ya Ming Building Materials Trading, a company based in the northern city of Tangshan that solely exports toilets and other bathroom fixtures to North America. A stronger dollar “made clients more willing to stock up on goods, and it means larger room for profit for us as well,” he said.
Adding to the questions about Monday’s release of export figures is that the General Administration of Customs since May has suspended the publishing of some key trade data, including commodities, citing “technical reasons.”
“The more the government tries to cover up, the more panicked the market could be,” Mr. Yang of Founder Securities said.
—Liyan Qi, Grace Zhu and Lin Zhu