Bears get the upper hand

Benchmark indices fell on higher crude oil price, negative global cues and rupee touching 19-month low. The Sensex, after opening more than 50 points up at 35,543.89, saw a gradual decline as the session progressed. The index fell 272.93 points, or 0.77 per cent, to settle at 35,217.11. The Nifty 50 Index fell 97.75 points or 0.91 per cent to settle at 10,671.40. The fall in the mid-cap and small-cap indices was higher with the BSE Mid-Cap Index down 1.50 per cent and BSE Small-Cap Index down 2 per cent. The market breadth was negative with 2,218 stocks declining against 464 stocks advancing on the BSE.

Technical view

Gaurav Ratnaparkhi, senior technical analyst, Sharekhan by BNP Paribas, said: “The Nifty opened on positive note only to face selling pressure. The opening level turned out to be the highest level for the day. On the way down, the index has broken the swing low of 10,701 as well as the crucial daily moving averages. It indicates that the distribution over last few sessions is finally over and the bears have taken the charge completely. The benchmark index now looks poised to test the May low of 10,417 with potential to slide down to significantly lower levels. On the flip side, 10,785-10,800 shall act as a key hurdle zone.

Mustafa Nadeem, CEO, Epic Research, said: "The Nifty ended below 10,700 after almost three weeks of consolidation. A close below short-term 50 day moving average (DMA) is signalling bearishness in sentiments in short-term as since almost a month it has closed below that average. As it is equity derivative expiry on Thursday, an aggressive writing is observed which shifted to 10,700 from 10,800 indicating the bearishness. Further, a rise in volatility has made traders opting for Puts. With a closing below 50 DMA, we expect a bearish momentum to continue. The first few hours of the expiry day may be volatile and the pain may intensify as Nifty may touch 10,610–10,600.”

Market view

VK Sharma, head, private client group & capital markets strategy, HDFC Securities, said: “A 4 per cent surge in crude prices and a 30 paise depreciation of the rupee cast its ominous shadow on the markets. Today is the derivatives settlement and the index breaking its support does not augur well. The Nifty has also closed below its 20 DMA and 50 DMA, which is further ominous."

—Ravi Ranjan Prasad