With the second round of World Cup group stage action nearly in the books, the advancement scenarios are now mostly clear. The top two teams in each group advance to the round of 16. All the scenarios are below.

Here’s how the teams are ranked in the groups, as explained by FIFA:

​1. Greatest number of points (each team gets three for a win and one for a draw).

2. Goal difference in all group matches.

3. Goals scored in all group matches.

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And if two or more teams still are tied after that? We go to:

1. Greatest number of points obtained in the group matches between the teams concerned.

2. Goal difference resulting from the group matches between the teams concerned.

3. Greater number of goals scored in all group matches between the teams concerned.

4. Greater number of points obtained regarding fair play conduct (yellow cards = minus-1; indirect red card, as a result of a second yellow card = minus-3, direct red card = minus-4, yellow card and direct red = minus-5, with only one of the deductions applied to a player in a single game).

And if, by some quirk, there’s still a tie?

Then there will be a drawing of lots by FIFA’s Organizing Committee.

Here are the current advancement scenarios. (All times Eastern.)

Group A

Team Record (W-D-L) Points GF GA Diff.
Russia 2-0-0 6 8 1 7
Uruguay 2-0-0 6 2 0 2
Egypt 0-0-2 0 1 4 -3
Saudi Arabia 0-0-2 0 0 6 -6

Russia and Uruguay have secured passage to the knockout round after just two games, while Egypt and Saudi Arabia have been eliminated. Russia will earn first place in the group with a win or draw against Uruguay on Monday (in the case of the latter, Uruguay cannot overtake Russia on goal differential).

Remaining games

Uruguay vs. Russia, Monday, 10 a.m.

Saudi Arabia vs. Egypt, Monday, 10 a.m.

Group B

Team Record (W-D-L) Points GF GA Diff.
Spain 1-1-0 4 4 3 1
Portugal 1-1-0 4 4 3 1
Iran 1-0-1 3 1 1 0
Morocco 0-0-2 0 0 2 -2

Morocco has been eliminated from knockout round contention. Spain and Portugal both need just a draw to clinch advancement. Iran almost certainly needs to defeat Portugal to have a chance; a draw would give Team Melli 4 points, not likely enough unless Spain loses by at least two goals to Morocco.

Remaining games

Iran vs. Portugal, Monday, 2 p.m.

Spain vs. Morocco, Monday, 2 p.m.

Group C

Team Record (W-D-L) Points GF GA Diff.
France 2-0-0 6 3 1 2
Denmark 1-1-0 4 2 1 1
Australia 0-1-1 1 2 3 -1
Peru 0-0-2 0 0 2 -2

France is through to the round of 16 with Thursday’s win over Peru, which has been eliminated from knockout-round contention. Denmark simply needs a draw with France to move on. Australia is still alive but its chances are far less certain; at the bare minimum it needs to beat Peru and have Denmark lose to France. An Australia win by at least two goals combined with a Denmark loss — of any margin — would put the Socceroos through. But should the Aussies win by just one goal, their chances would depend on Denmark’s margin of defeat and goals scored against France. For instance, a 1-0 Australia win combined with a 1-0 Denmark loss would put the Socceroos through by virtue of the total-goals tiebreaker. But a 1-0 Australia win combined with a 3-2 Denmark loss would work in the Danes’ favor, for the same reason.

Remaining games

Denmark vs. France, Tuesday, 10 a.m.

Australia vs. Peru, Tuesday, 10 a.m.

Group D

Team Record (W-D-L) Points GF GA Diff.
Croatia 2-0-0 6 5 0 5
Nigeria 1-1-0 3 2 2 0
Iceland 0-1-1 1 1 3 -2
Argentina 0-1-1 1 1 4 -3

Croatia is through to the knockout round with its shockingly dominant win over Argentina. Nigeria will advance with a win over Argentina on Tuesday, and it likely will advance with a draw, though that isn’t guaranteed. As for the other two squads, there’s hope. Iceland needs to beat Croatia and hope Nigeria loses to Argentina by a margin that doesn’t alter the current goal-differential standings. Iceland could also advance if Nigeria and Argentina draw, either with a win over Croatia by at least three goals, or a two-goal win over Croatia provided Iceland also outscores Nigeria by at least two. (Got that?)

Argentina, meanwhile, needs to beat Nigeria and hope for either an Iceland loss or draw, or it needs to blow out Nigeria and hope that any Iceland win over Croatia is close. (In other words, Argentina’s margin of victory needs to be larger than Iceland’s margin of victory).

At the essence of it all, Iceland and Argentina both need to win to have any chance to advance. After that it comes down to the final scores and other results.

Remaining games

Nigeria vs. Argentina, Tuesday, 2 p.m.

Iceland vs. Croatia, Tuesday, 2 p.m.

Group E

Team Record (W-D-L) Points GF GA Diff.
Brazil 1-1-0 4 3 1 2
Switzerland 1-1-0 4 3 2 1
Serbia 1-0-1 3 2 2 0
Costa Rica 0-0-2 0 0 3 -3

There’s now a tie atop Group E, with Brazil ahead of Switzerland on goal differential. Brazil will advance to the knockout round with either a win or a draw against Serbia. Switzerland can similarly advance with either a win or a draw against Costa Rica. Both Brazil and Switzerland could even advance with a loss, provided the other team also loses, with the second slot in the group then being awarded based on goal differential and/or goals scored.

Serbia must at least earn a draw against the Brazilians to have any chance at advancement, but that would only be enough if Switzerland loses to Costa Rica, putting goal differential and/or goals scored in play. Serbia would clinch a knockout round berth with a win over Brazil.

Costa Rica has been eliminated from knockout-round contention after its loss to Brazil on Friday.

Remaining games

Brazil vs. Serbia, Wednesday, 2 p.m.

Switzerland vs. Costa Rica, Wednesday, 2 p.m.

Group F

Team Record (W-D-L) Points GF GA Diff.
Mexico 2-0-0 6 3 1 2
Sweden 1-0-1 3 2 2 0
Germany 1-0-1 3 2 2 0
South Korea 0-0-2 0 1 3 -2

The chaos scenarios: If Sweden and Germany win, there would be a three-way tie in points atop the standings that would be decided first by goal differential and then by total goals scored (and then by even more tiebreaker situations if things get really insane.) If South Korea and Mexico win, there would be a three-way tie for the second-place spot behind Mexico. Tiebreakers would again decide.

If Germany wins, it would advance on a Sweden loss or or draw. If Sweden wins, it would advance on a Germany loss or draw. If both sides draw, it would go to tiebreakers.

The statisticians at FiveThirtyEight give reigning World Cup champion Germany the best odds of advancing to the knockout stages at 87 percent, followed by Mexico (72 percent) and Sweden (40 percent). South Korea, although mathematically alive, was given a 1 percent chance of advancing.

Remaining games

Mexico vs. Sweden, Wednesday, 10 a.m.

Germany vs. South Korea, Wednesday, 10 a.m.

Group G

Team Record (W-D-L) Points GF GA Diff.
Belgium 2-0-0 6 8 2 6
England 2-0-0 6 8 2 6
Tunisia 0-0-2 0 3 7 -4
Panama 0-0-2 0 1 9 -8

England’s dominant win Sunday clinched knockout round spots for both the Three Lions and Belgium, eliminating Tunisia and woeful Panama. Belgium and England have identical goal differentials and total goals; if their match Thursday ends in a draw, Group G’s winner will be determined by fair play conduct (see above.) Either team would win the group by winning that match.

Remaining games

Tunisia vs. Panama, Thursday, 2 p.m.

England vs. Belgium, Thursday, 2 p.m.

Group H

Team Record (W-D-L) Points GF GA Diff.
Japan 1-0-0 3 2 1 1
Senegal 1-0-0 3 2 1 1
Poland 0-0-1 0 1 2 -1
Colombia 0-0-1 0 1 2 -1

Remaining games

Japan vs. Senegal, Sunday, 11 a.m.

Poland vs. Colombia, Sunday, 2 p.m.

Japan vs. Poland, Thursday, 10 a.m.

Colombia vs. Senegal, Thursday, 10 a.m.

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