USA TODAY Sports' Martin Rogers takes a look at the World Cup's brand spankin' new replay system. USA TODAY Sports
MOSCOW – The business end of the World Cup’s group stage is the time when it pays to have a calculator, some ibuprofen and some patience in ready supply. As the teams scrap it out for either survival or for the top spot in the group and a plum draw in the knockout stage, there are countless scenarios and permutations that will decide the fate of all those World Cup dreams.
Here we take a look at how things stand as crunch time approaches, with half of the World Cup field soon to be eliminated as the fight for the trophy heats up. All teams have played two of their three group games. The group stage ends Thursday.
GROUP A
Russia and Uruguay are already guaranteed to claim the top two spots, with Egypt and Saudi Arabia mathematically out of contention after two of their three games. Russia will top the group if it beats or ties with Uruguay.
GROUP B
Spain is certain to advance if it wins or ties against Morocco, which is already eliminated. If Spain loses to Morocco it still advances IF Portugal beats Iran. If it loses by two goals or more AND Portugal ties with Iran, Spain is eliminated. If Spain loses to Morocco AND Portugal loses to Iran, second place would go to whichever team (out of Spain and Portugal) had lost its third game by the lowest amount, OR had scored more goals if the margin of defeat was the same.
Portugal will advance with a win or a tie against Iran. If it loses to Iran, it will be eliminated UNLESS Spain loses to Morocco AND Portugal manages to finish above it on goal differential.
Iran will advance if it beats Portugal. Iran can advance with a tie if Spain loses to Morocco by more than one goal, OR if Spain loses by a single goal, Iran scores enough goals to put its tally above Spain’s.
GROUP C
France has qualified for the round of 16 and will top the group if it beats or ties with Denmark. Denmark will top the group if it beats France and will qualify in second place with a tie.
Peru is eliminated, but Australia has a chance if it beats Peru AND Denmark loses to France AND Australia’s goal differential moves ahead of Denmark’s.
GROUP D
Croatia has qualified for the round of 16 and will top the group if it beats or ties with Iceland. Nigeria can top the group if it beats Argentina AND Croatia loses to Iceland AND Nigeria improves its goal differential ahead of Croatia’s.
Nigeria would qualify in second place if it ties with Argentina UNLESS Iceland beats Croatia AND Iceland improves its goal differential above Nigeria’s.
Iceland is eliminated if Nigeria beats Argentina. To have a chance, Iceland must beat Croatia AND ensure its goal differential is above Nigeria (if Nigeria and Argentina tie) OR above Argentina (if Argentina beats Nigeria).
Argentina is eliminated with a defeat or a tie. But if it beats Nigeria AND Iceland fails to beat Croatia it is through. Even if Iceland beats Croatia, Argentina can still qualify if its goal differential is greater than Iceland’s.
GROUP E
Brazil can reach the round of 16 with a win or tie against Serbia. Switzerland can qualify with a win or a tie against Costa Rica. Serbia can qualify with a win against Brazil. Costa Rica is eliminated.
Serbia could qualify in second place if it ties with Brazil AND Switzerland loses to Costa Rica AND Serbia’s goal differential is greater than Switzerland’s.
Switzerland could qualify with a defeat if Serbia also loses to Brazil. Brazil could qualify with a defeat if Switzerland also loses AND Brazil’s goal differential remains greater than Switzerland’s.
GROUP F
Mexico will top the group and qualify for the round of 16 with a tie or better against Sweden in its final group game.
However, complicated three-way ties are possible, for either places 1-3 (if Sweden beats Mexico AND Germany beats South Korea) or places 2-4, (if Mexico beats Sweden AND South Korea beats Germany). A number of two-way ties are also possible.
All ties are broken by a list of tiebreakers, first by goal differential, then (if still level) goals scored, goals scored against the tied teams, even down to the lowest number of disciplinary points (yellow and red cards).
Sweden is eliminated with a defeat but is guaranteed to reach the round of 16 if it beats Mexico. It can also move on if it ties with Mexico AND South Korea beats Germany, or IF Germany and South Korea ends in a tie AND Sweden finishes ahead of those teams on countback.
Germany is guaranteed to qualify for the round of 16 if it beats South Korea by two or more goals OR if it beats South Korea AND Sweden fails to beat Mexico, OR if it ties with South Korea AND Sweden loses to Mexico, OR if both games end in a tie with Sweden scoring the same or fewer goals than Germany. Germany is eliminated if it loses to South Korea by two or more goals OR if it loses to South Korea AND Sweden gets at least a point against Mexico.
South Korea will qualify if it beats Germany by two or more goals AND Sweden loses to Mexico OR if it beats Germany AND finishes ahead of both Germany and Sweden on the tiebreaking criteria.
GROUP G
Belgium and England are both guaranteed a place in the round of 16. Panama and Tunisia are eliminated. The winner of Belgium v. England will win the group, the loser will place second. If it is a tie, it will be decided by the final countback tiebreaker - which team has fewer disciplinary points for red and yellow cards.
GROUP H
Poland was eliminated after its 3-0 loss to Colombia. Japan and Senegal can both qualify for the round of 16 with wins in their final games — Japan plays Poland and Senegal meets Colombia. A win would ensure Colombia advancing no matter what Japan does.
