The expiry of June futures & options (F&O) contracts, progress of monsoon, global macroeconomic data, trend in global markets, investment by foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) and domestic institutional investors (DIIs), the movement of rupee against the dollar and crude oil price movement will dictate the trend on the bourses next week.
Trading could be volatile next week as traders roll over positions in the F&O segment from the near month June 2018 series to July 2018 series. The June 2018 F&O contracts expire on Thursday, 28 June 2018.
Progress of monsoon will be watched. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) in its weather report on 21 June 2018 said that for the country as a whole, cumulative rainfall during this year's monsoon from 1 to 20 June has been 7% below the Long Period Average (LPA). The June-September southwest monsoon is critical for the country's agriculture because a considerable part of the country's farmland is dependent on the rains for irrigation.
Geopolitics will remain in focus and developments in trade spat between the US and China will be closely watched.
On the global front, Japan Consumer Confidence index for June will be declared on 29 June 2018. In US, Durable Goods Orders for May will be declared on 27 June 2018. The final Q1 GDP growth rate will be declared on 28 June 2018.
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