OPEC ministers agree to raise oil production but don't say by how much

  • Producers agreed to start pumping more so that they are no longer overshooting the production limits they agreed to in November 2016.
  • Analysts say the agreement is likely to add around 600,000 to 800,000 barrels a day to the market, helping to tame oil prices that have soared to multi-year highs recently.
Khalid Al-Falih, Saudi Arabia's energy and industry minister, arrives ahead of the 174th Organization Of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) meeting in Vienna, Austria, on Friday, June 22, 2018.
Stefan Wermuth | Bloomberg | Getty Images
Khalid Al-Falih, Saudi Arabia's energy and industry minister, arrives ahead of the 174th Organization Of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) meeting in Vienna, Austria, on Friday, June 22, 2018.

OPEC ministers announced a deal on Friday that will increase oil supplies from the producer group, which has been capping output in order to balance the market and boost prices for the last 18 months.

The agreement came after a week of tense negotiation at OPEC's headquarters in Vienna, Austria. Top OPEC producer Saudi Arabia faced the challenge of convincing a handful of reluctant producers including Iran, Iraq and Venezuela to support an output hike.

While OPEC avoided the disastrous outcome of ending the week without a deal, it left the oil market somewhat disappointed by declining to announce a hard figure.

Instead, producers agreed to start pumping more so that they are no longer overshooting the target they set in November 2016. Then, the group agreed to keep 1.2 million barrels per day (bpd) off the market, but on Friday OPEC said they were cutting output well beyond that level.

"OPEC Member Countries have exceeded the required level of conformity that had reached 152% in May 2018," the group said in a statement. "Accordingly, the Conference hereby decided that countries will strive to adhere to the overall conformity level of OPEC-12, down to 100%" beginning on July 1.

Ahead of the official decision, sources said the group was aiming to restore about 1 million bpd to the market. However, industry sources familiar with the oil cartel's deliberations said the actual increase is likely to total around two-thirds of Saudi Arabia's target.

That's because some OPEC members would be unable to sufficiently ramp up crude production. Analysts say supply increases are more likely to fall in a range between 600,000 to 800,000 bpd.

OPEC's agreement with Russia and other producers to limit oil output has helped to clear a global supply overhang that weighed on prices for years.

However, OPEC faced pressure to increase output from President Donald Trump and big consumers like India after the cost of crude soared to multi-year highs, boosted by strong demand, dwindling output from Venezuela and renewed U.S. sanctions on Iran.

Oil prices shot up on Friday as details of the deal leaked ahead of the statement. John Kilduff, founding partner at energy hedge fund Again Capital, said the lack of clarity in the official statement around a production target was boosting crude futures.

"They definitely came up short, relative to expectations," he told CNBC. "A headline touting ... 1 million barrels of additional output would have made a difference."

The wider alliance, including OPEC, Russia and other producers, has sought to keep 1.8 million bpd off the market. But output among the 24 nations has actually fallen by about 2.8 million bpd, due largely to cratering production in Venezuela and supply disruptions elsewhere.

Saudi Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih said Friday morning that no-one should expect to see an "immediate flood" of oil coming back onto the market following the meeting.

He also warned the world could face a supply deficit of 1.8 million bpd in the second half of 2018 and that it was OPEC's responsibility to alleviate consumers' concerns.