10:30 p.m. update

Earlier activity has largely ended across the area, although some lighter rain is still falling near and east of I-95. Additional showers to the west may work through overnight into the early morning hours.

8:00 p.m. update

Rain is moving across the city and the immediate area. Heaviest on the front end, it could last an hour or two if the shield doesn’t fall apart quicker.

This doesn’t look like much of a flooding issue at this point, but we’ll keep an eye out as the line continues to move through.

6:25 p.m. update

A severe thunderstorm warning is up for parts of Loudoun, Frederick, and far western Montgomery counties until 7 p.m. (6:40 p.m. update: the warning has been dropped). This storm is capable of some isolated wind damage in addition to lightning and heavy rain. This activity is moving east and southeast, and should sweep through the area in some fashion during the hours ahead.

Although this storm was recently warned, our area remains more stable than not. For the most part this activity should be sub severe as it passes, but some isolated wind damage can’t be totally ruled out.

From 4:35 p.m…

Today’s highs in the low to mid-80s were pretty normal for the date. Some parts of the area saw lower humidity than recent days as well, especially as you got north of the city. It is feeling like June, though, and June likes to send us waves of storminess. The next is on its way. There is some question as to how well it holds together as it arrives.

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Through Tonight: Other than a few showers, we’re in a bit of a rain hole late this afternoon. Activity to the northwest should work toward us over the next few hours. We’re still rather stable in the immediate area, although there is some slight chance this instability noses north a bit this evening. If so, our odds of bigger storms are a little better.

I think we’re mainly just showery when this stuff works in, and some rumbles are also likely. Even if the storms are weakening on approach, they could drop brief heavy rain that could cause flash flooding, given relatively slow movement. Odds of strong to severe storms increase south of the city, and isolated wind damage is the main threat. We dry out overnight and maybe even see some clearing toward morning. Lows are in the upper 60s to mid-70s.

View the current weather at The Washington Post.

Tomorrow (Thursday): The big question here might be how much sun we see. If it’s enough, temperatures could quickly pop well into the 80s. If not, we might get stuck closer to 80. For now, it’s worth leaning slightly pessimistic (although lower temperatures are a plus!). Along with skies that are at least occasionally cloudy, we could see a couple of showers as soon as midday. That chance may be best south.

See Dan Stillman’s forecast through the weekend. And if you haven’t already, join us on Facebook and follow us on Twitter and Instagram. For related traffic news, check out Gridlock.

New Hampshire tornadoes: It has been a stormy week in the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast so far. On Monday, storms ripped across parts of New England. The National Weather Service has confirmed that two tornadoes touched down Monday afternoon in New Hampshire. Both were EF-0, the weakest of six ratings on a 0-5 scale. The state averages about one tornado per year.

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