Royal Ascot 2018: day one – live!

Sir Michael Stoute 75
Aidan O’Brien 61
John Gosden 43
Mark Johnston 41
Saeed bin-Suroor 35
Paul Cole 21
Mick Channon 18

Stoute failed to have a winner at Ascot last year, for only the second time since 1995. Just to rub it in, his tally of 75 matches the trainer’s record set by the much-missed Sir Henry Cecil, so Stoute had to spend the whole week fielding questions from the media about when he was going to get the record to himself. Press folk are, of course, noted for their humanity, so I dare say it will be a similar story this week. At least he’s got runners on Day One this time, four of them in fact, which makes four more than he had on this day a year ago. Aidan O’Brien is showing everyone else how the game is played, with at least one runner in every race and 12 in total. Gosden has a more restrained five but they do include Without Parole, favourite for the big race at 4.20pm.

“Benbatl is the worst loser of the day,” quoth Paddy Power’s on-course representative, Paul Binfield, already into full-on despair mode, as if there’s much for bookies to worry about. The Godolphin runner is 9-2 from 5-1 for the Queen Anne, which opens today’s proceedings at 2.30pm. The other one Paddy doesn’t want, apparently, is Battaash (3.40), as they have made a trading decision to keep Lady Aurelia onside in the King’s Stand, with the result that their book for that race has an unbalanced look. Advertise (3.05) is 12-1 from 18s for the Coventry, the firm reports. Later on the card, punters are evidently putting their faith in Ryan Moore, whose mount Chelkar (5.00) is 11-2 from 7s for the Ascot Stakes, while Yucatan (5.35) is 8-1 from 9s in the Wolferton, though there has also been some interest in Morando (11-1 from 12s) for the closing contest.

Frankie Dettori 56 wins
Ryan Moore 48
Jamie Spencer 24
William Buick 20
Olivier Peslier 16
(highest career totals for currently licensed jockeys)

Ryan Mighty has been top jockey at Royal Ascot seven times in the past eight years, beaten only in that time by Johnny Murtagh in 2013. But he’ll face a bit more competition this year than last, when Frankie Dettori was a late absentee. The Italian had better crack on with a few winners here, or Moore will be past his career total in a year or two. Dettori hasn’t been top dog in this week since 2004, when he was a stripling of 33 summers. Whatever happens, just remember that he’s not retiring!

Here’s how the big two match up for rides today:
2.30 Dettori: (feet up) Moore: Rhododendron 4-1
3.05 Dettori: Calyx 3-1 Moore: Sergei Prokofiev 3-1
3.40 Dettori: (resting) Moore: Different League 22-1
4.20 Dettori: Without Parole 100-30 Moore: U S Navy Flag 5-1
5.00 Dettori: (forty winks) Moore: Chelkar 11-2
5.35 Dettori: Monarchs Glen 12-1 Moore: Yucatan 8-1

Despair, all those who wanted a bit of cut in the ground for this week’s racing. The going is officially described as ‘good to firm, good in places’, while GoingStick readings (8.6 or higher for the straight course, 7.8 for the round) suggest there might not be much of that ‘good in places’. The forecast is dry, warm and breezy, we are advised by the clerk of the course, Chris Stickels. He expects to put some water down after racing throughout the week, to prevent the track drying out any further.

Fast-ground horses should be in their element and anything with significant powers of acceleration will have every chance to show it this week. Grinders are going to find themselves outpaced. Hold-up horses may find that the ones in front are not getting tired fast enough.

The big question ahead of the week’s big-field handicaps is which side of the straight course is the right place to be. Action here last month suggested those drawn low might have an advantage but that can be no more than a tentative suggestion, particularly because jockey behaviour has so much to do with draw biases or perception of same.

2.30 Queen Anne Stakes Few trainers would be more grateful for a big win at this Royal Ascot than Saeed bin Suroor, who has made a quiet start to the European flat-racing season, while Godolphin’s other Newmarket yard produced the goods in the Derby. Bin Suroor fields Benbatl, whose Dubai Turf success in March is just about the best form on offer and who won a Group Three in this week a year ago. But horses who have a busy Dubai campaign early in the year cannot be relied on to pick up in midsummer where they left off in spring, so a better option might be the progressive French raider, Recoletos. From an in-form yard, he delivered a career-best performance to win the Ispahan last month and he travelled well for a long way behind Cracksman in the Champion Stakes before failing to stay. He is preferred to Rhododendron, who had everything fall right for her in the Lockinge.

3.05 Coventry Stakes Calyx is the sexy one here, the son of Kingman having looked so very zippy on his debut at Newmarket 10 days ago. But he won that race with a killer burst of pace and could find that weapon being taken from him by an end-to-end gallop this time. Sergei Prokofiev is a short price for a horse stepping up in distance, so the suggestion is the imposing Cosmic Law, who showed a lot of improvement to land the Woodcote on Derby weekend.

3.40 King’s Stand Stakes Possibly continuing a good day for French raiders, Finsbury Square could outrun big odds here. A veteran of 35 races, he produced a career best on his first run since joining Mauricio Delcher Sanchez, who won this race 10 years ago with Equiano. Whether Finsbury Square can repeat that effort to score at Chantilly a fortnight ago is one question that must be answered but he was only beaten three lengths in the Diamond Jubilee last year and any improvement would make him very dangerous. Lady Aurelia needs no introduction but she has started her two previous seasons strongly, so her reappearance defeat is a concern. Battaash is a huge talent but this atmosphere will be a real test for a temperamental sort and his stable is out of form.

4.20 St James’s Palace Stakes There’s a lot to be said for latching onto a star horse before every other punter has spotted his talent but an excess of faith can be expensive, a lesson which possibly awaits those who have made Without Parole favourite for the St James’s Palace Stakes. The highlight race on day one of Royal Ascot generally features a clash between Classic winners but this colt is stepping straight up from Listed company and, while he might be able to manage it with John Gosden’s help, odds of 11-4 make no appeal. A more orthodox favourite would be Romanised, winner of the Irish 2,000 Guineasand beaten only by Masar, the Derby winner, when he last came to Britain in September. I don’t think there was any fluke about his Curragh win last month, when he produced a really strong finish to reel in U S Navy Flag. On a fast surface here, there is a risk that that rival could pinch a handy lead off the home turn but Romanised is the way to bet at 11-2. Tip Two Win can go well again but might lack the necessary finishing kick.

5.00 Ascot Handicap The record of Willie Mullins means that all five of his are worth a look but perhaps Alan King can trump the Irishman this time with Coeur De Lion. Place prize money has been his speciality in marathon Flat handicaps but he was a shade unlucky when a rival got first run on him at Chester last time and the cheekpieces fitted that day can help him again. Martin Harley, who has done well for King in recent weeks, gets his first chance aboard this one.

5.35 Wolferton Stakes There is no shame in having been beaten by a Charle Appleby runner on Guineas weekend this year, a time when the Godolphin man was close to unbeatable. Sharja Bridge went down by just half a length that day, was well clear of the third and is ready for this step up into Listed company.

You could win a £50 bet from Ladbrokes by proving your tipping prowess on today’s races. All you have to do is give us your selections for all of today’s races at Ascot. As ever, our champion will be the tipster who returns the best profit to notional level stakes of £1 at starting price. Non-runners count as losers.

Please post all your tips in a single posting, using the comment facility below, before the first race at 2.30pm BST. There are six races at Ascot today and you must post a single selection for each race.

Our usual terms and conditions, which you can read here will apply, except that this will be a strictly one-day thing. If we get a tie after all the races have been run, the winner will be the one who posted their tips earliest out of those with the highest score. If you don’t win today, don’t despair. We are running an identical competition on each day of the Royal meeting, up to Friday. And post your tips or racing-related comments below.

It used to be said that Royal Ascot opened with the best of the week – and in front of the smallest crowd. It is a day for the purists, or that is how the theory went, at least. Three Group One races, and still space to move around before the crowds really build towards the end of the week.

In fact, the first-day attendance has been outstripping the crowd for Wednesday’s card for quite a few years now, perhaps as a result of the decision to stage nearly half of the meeting’s entire roster of Group One events before 4.30pm on the opening afternoon. But the live audience of maybe 45,000 will still be nothing like the 70,000 or so expected for the final three days, and nowhere near the 55,000 who turned up for the opening day when Ascot unveiled its shiny new grandstand back in 2006.

The fact that Ascot gets so many of the main events out of the way almost before anyone has drawn breath remains a bit of a puzzle.

The track no longer runs all three of Tuesday’s Group Ones at the top of the card, having inserted the Coventry Stakes – which is a Group One in all but name – as the second race of the day but three Group Ones just feels like too many when the remaining five are spread out over the next four days. None will get the attention they deserve, and one – probably the Queen Anne this time around – is likely to feel like an afterthought by this evening.

That is because the King’s Stand Stakes, the third race of the meeting, is arguably the most eagerly anticipated event of all, as it pits Battaash and Lady Aurelia against each other in a hell-for-leather dash down the straight. The St James’s Palace Stakes, meanwhile, is the official highlight of the day and there is a real chance that David, in the form of Roger Teal’s Tip Two Win, will knock out a small army of Goliaths from the biggest bloodstock operations in the business.

Away from the Group One action, Calyx versus Sergei Prokofiev in the Coventry Stakes will probably decide the early favourite for next year’s 2,000 Guineas, while the Ascot Stakes at 5.00 has several possible “plunge” horses lurking in the field, including Stratum, in the colours of Tony Bloom, whose Withhold landed a huge gamble in another big staying handicap, the Cesarewitch, last year.

The going at Ascot is officially good-to-firm and the forecast is for a generally dry and warm week. The stage is set for a fabulous week of racing, and it all gets under way at 2.30pm BST.