Make no mistake, Joachim Löw is facing his biggest test as Germany’s manager since taking the role 12 years ago. The defeat to Mexico was not only a surprise but also a big concern for a team who are not used to losing games at tournaments, certainly not at the very start. Germans are now waiting to see how Löw reacts before Saturday’s must-win game against Sweden.
Germany were outfought and outthought by Mexico. Physically they did not look 100% and simply could not cope with the approach of Juan Carlos Osorio’s side tactically. Mexico were perfect in that regard – they knew Germany like to play with high full-backs so decided to press high-up, targeting Toni Kroos in particular, as well as the two centre-backs, Mats Hummels and Jérôme Boateng. They man-marked Hummels at times to ensure he could not build play from the back, which led to Boateng, who was largely left alone, being the man who tried to get Germany going, but he does not have Hummels’ passing range or accuracy. So Germany lost the ball often and when they did, Mexico went for the kill. They scored once and should have scored more.
It was alarming to see Germany exposed time and time again and, ahead of the Sweden game, it’s fascinating to wonder if Löw decides what went wrong in Moscow was more to do with personnel than tactics, that his players let him down rather than the other way around. It’s hard to say for sure but, personally, I expect him to make one or two changes to his lineup while doing little to a way of playing that has proved hugely successful. Germany have reached at least the semi-final of the five major tournament they have contested under Löw and, four years ago, were crowned world champions.
Sweden are unlikely to take on Germany in the way Mexico did.They don’t favour to press so high up the pitch and instead are more likely to sit back and aim to counterattack. So Germany will have a lot of possession and will have to make sure they are careful with it.
Having watched Germany’s two friendlies before the World Cup, in which they underperformed, there was a sense of complacency. Equally, however, I expected them to go into the tournament fully focused and in ideal shape. After all, this is what Germany tend to do but that has proven not to be the case this time. There was a lot of noise around the team in preparation for the World Cup, with some of that focusing on the photo Mesut Özil and Ilkay Gündogan took with the Turkey president, Recep Tayyip Erdogan. It became, and remained, a huge talking point in Germany.
However, it had little to do with the defeat to Mexico and, in that regard, the players need to take their share of responsibility for what happened, and having proven themselves in the past, they now need to prove themselves again in what is a dangerous, uncomfortable and unusual situation for Germany - on the back foot having lost their first match at a World Cup.
The tournament has been interesting. The obvious highlight was Spain’s match against Portugal, which proved to be fantastic entertainment, while from a neutral’s point of view, our game against Mexico was also a great watch, especially Mexico’s approach to it from a tactical point of view. Most of the other big teams have, like Germany, struggled for performances and the overall quality level has not been great, certainly not compared with what we are used to seeing in the Champions League.
That should improve as the tournament goes on, as hopefully will Germany. They certainly need to if they plan on continuing at this World Cup and going on to retain the title they won in Brazil.
Looking ahead, one problem we may have in regards to that ambition is our options in attack. Germany are not so strong there, certainly compared with the other big teams. For many years, Germany focused on the development of technically gifted players, which led Löw to sometimes play with no striker, or on occasion a false No 9, like Spain did for a while.
Overall, however, there is no doubting the quality of Germany’s squad, nor their experience. It is now time for manager, staff and players to come together and react in the right way to a big setback. The game against Sweden is a big test and one Germany simply must pass.