Fed and ECB inflict fresh blows on currencies, stocks

A broker looks at a computer

A gauge tracking developing-market currencies fell to a six-month low.

By Yumi Teso , George Lei , and Alexander Nicholson
The selloff in emerging markets showed few signs of abating as a combination of mounting trade-war concerns, slightly hawkish Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank’s decision to phase out asset purchases pummeled stocks and currencies.

The MSCI Emerging Markets Index of equities slumped 1.9 percent for the week, the biggest drop in a month, while a gauge tracking developing-market currencies fell to a six-month low. The Bloomberg Barclays index of EM local-currency government bonds lost 0.2 percent in a second weekly decline.

Highlights for the week ended June 15:


Asia:


EMEA:

  • Turkey’s lira was the second worst performer in emerging markets in the week after the Argentine peso.
  • Turkey’s central bank said it expects inflationary pressure to continue in June.
  • State-run Anadolu Agency cited President Erdogan as saying the nation will conduct an "operation" against Moody’s after June 24.
  • “State of emergency can be declared again should there be a problem,” Erdogan said, qualifying a June 8 comment that the state of emergency may be lifted after the June 24 elections.
  • The nation’s economy grew 7.4 percent in the first quarter, while the current-account deficit was $5.43 billion in April, bigger than the estimate for a shortfall of $5.15 billion.
  • The Borsa Istanbul 100 index fell to the lowest since April 2017 before rebounding on Friday.
  • Russia’s local-currency 10-year bonds fell for a third week, lifting yields 15 basis points to 7.67 percent as the ruble had its worst week since April
  • Russia plans to raise the retirement age and increase the value-added tax.
  • Saudi Arabia wants to continue cooperation with Russia on oil, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman said at Kremlin talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin.
  • South Africa’s rand sank 2.7 percent in the week; business confidence retreated from a three-year high in the first quarter, while retail sales missed estimates, rising at slowest pace since February 2017.
  • FTSE/JSE Africa All Share index dropped, ending a two-week winning streak.
  • Downside risks to South Africa’s economic outlook are “prominent,” with spending pressures and a higher public-wage bill potentially raising financing costs and damping growth, the IMF said.
  • The government spelled out its case against suspended tax chief Tom Moyane.
Hungary’s forint was the worst performer in eastern Europe; the National Bank of Hungary is prepared to shift policy and tighten monetary conditions if the forint’s depreciation endangers its inflation target, Deputy Governor Marton Nagy told investors and traders, people familiar with the discussions said.

Latin America:Argentina’s peso extended an 8-week losing streak; the government plans to sell as much as $7.5 billion in the foreign-exchange market to support budget expenditures once it gets access to a credit line from the IMF; the IMF said its executive board will vote on the credit line June 20
  • Argentine truck drivers went on a nationwide strike and other labor unions have threatened to join the stoppage.
  • The central bank held its benchmark interest rate at 40 percent and indicated it would stay high until inflation starts to cool.
  • Yields on Argentina’s century bond jumped to 9 percent for the first time.
  • Brazil’s real resumed its drop; risk of below-target inflation in Brazil has declined, but the fact that it’s returning to 4 percent over the year doesn’t seem to be out of the base scenario, central bank President Ilan Goldfajn said in an interview with Estado.
  • The Ibovespa stock gauge fell to the lowest since August 2017.
  • The Mexican peso retreated for a third week; Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, the favorite to win the presidency election, will work to calm investors and business leaders who have been anxious about some of his promises, such as an audit of oil contracts, his campaign chief said.
  • Nafta renegotiations will continue through the summer as all three countries agree to work toward a deal, Canadian Foreign Minister Chrystia Freeland said after a meeting with U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer.
  • Mexico’s 10-year peso bond yield jumped to 8 percent, the highest since 2011.
  • Colombia’s peso halted a three-week winning streak; the country’s second-round presidential election will be held on Sunday, with center-right candidate Ivan Duque poised for victory.

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