Market correctly tipped Germany for football success in 2014.

France will triumph at upcoming World Cup in Russia, according to research by Lloyd’s.

The French won the FIFA tournament on home soil in 1998.

The global footballing spectacle kicks off on Thursday 14 June. Ahead of this Lloyd's has teamed up with the Centre for Economics and Business Research (Cebr) to rank the teams based on the collective insurable value of players.

The model correctly predicted that Germany would win its fourth trophy when the event was hosted in Brazil in 2014.

Collective value
According to the research the estimated total collective value of all teams in this year’s tournament is £13.1bn (see infographic below for a breakdown by each competing nation).

As the above infographic makes clear, Group G, containing England, Belgium, Tunisia an Panama leads the way with the highest insurable value.

Lloyd’s dubbed Group H featuring Colombia, Japan, Poland and Senegal as the ‘Group of Death’ with just £26.5m separating the valuation of three teams as they battle for two places in the knockout rounds.

The specialist market explained that Cebr used players’ wages and endorsement incomes, alongside a collection of additional factors, to build an economic model which estimates players’ incomes until retirement.

These projections formed the basis for assessing insurable values by player age, playing position and nationality.

It then used the highest insurable values to predict who would qualify from the groups and plot the winners in the knockout stages.

Favourites
Victoria De’Ath, Lloyd’s class of business, commented: “The contrast between the teams at the top and bottom in terms of insurable value is staggering, with the top six national teams worth more than the other 26 combined.

“We can’t wait to see if some teams can defy the odds and make it through, and if the favourites can prove their worth.”

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