CHENNAI: June 18 will mark nine months of disqualification of 18
AIADMK members from the state assembly. A mere one week delay thereafter on the part of
Madras high court will mark five months since the first bench completed hearing the red-hot case, and reserved its verdict.
The assembly speaker disqualified 18 AIADMK members loyal to rebel leader T T V Dhinakaran on September 18, 2017. The charge against them was that they met the state governor and submitted a memorandum with a view to destabilise the government, and that it amounted to anti-party activity warranting disqualification under the anti-defection law.
The high court reserved its orders on January 24, 2018. And it is taking its time to decide if, in the absence of a whip, the party MLAs could be disqualified, that too for having met the governor and submitted a memorandum for change in chief ministership. In effect, the high court has to rule on whether a speaker's writ would extend beyond the assembly premises, in this case for an action that took place at Raj Bhavan.
During the period, however, the legislators have lost opportunity to take part in at least four assembly sessions, including the ongoing session and a full budget session earlier this year. As the high court has ruled that the constituencies are not to be considered vacant and polls not to be held till final verdict is delivered, the constituencies are not at all represented in the assembly. They are orphan constituencies as of now.
While there are murmurs in judicial circles with regard to the long delay on delivering the judgment, more so because the matter would see finality only in the Supreme Court, there is a perceptible disquiet in the government, as its fate hinges on the outcome of the case.
Not sure of the number it could muster in case of loss of the case, the ruling party is said to be building bridges with as many rebel MLAs as possible. If all the 18 return to the assembly, it will lead to another floor test to test whether the majority is standing behind Chief Minister Edappadi K Palaniswami or not.
If the disqualification is upheld, it would mean bypoll to 18 constituencies and it would give the DMK an opportunity to increase its tally of legislators and to put pressure on the Palaniswami government which is already surviving by a razor thin margin. DMK is just 19 shy of power, as it it has 98 MLAs including nine of its allies.
The 18 MLAs, whose fate is hanging fire, plus the three independent MLAs who won on AIADMK ticket, together hold key to the stability of Palaniswami government or any new realignment within the AIADMK. All are, of course, bound by the AIADMK chief whip, as they were elected on Two Leaves symbol as official AIADMK candidates.
Madras high court