In gambling, the winner is the player who has studied the odds carefully, applies them strategically, is resolute and fearless, and patient.
And then there is the guy who is just fearless, often wearing the accessory of flamboyance. When this guy walks in, smart gamblers smile. This is the guy they wait for. The guy who doesn’t see his limitations, who mistakes instincts for actual probabilities, maybe gets a few splashy wins upfront, and is destined to fritter away his money and walk out bankrupt. This man is President Trump.
It should be remembered that Trump casinos have gone bankrupt before. It takes some real gambling know-how to be the house and lose.
People who fancy themselves as gut players, who bend or break the protocols and conventions, who think they know better than anyone, will always lose eventually. Want another recent example? George W. Bush was a gut player too, lest we forget. He sized up the world after 9/11 and decided to gamble his presidency on a crazy long-shot side bet: war in Iraq. The odds were as bad as the rationale and the evidence, but no matter. He was the big decider. He went with his gut. Oops.
And now here we go again, times 10. It may send thrilling shivers of joy up the thighs of people who share Trump’s personality traits of ignorance and bravado, but the world is full of smarter players waiting to take advantage of the kind of openings that Trump-style play invariably creates. Brains and patience win the long game, and world history is the very definition of the long game.
In the casino, it’s guys like Trump who eventually walk out losers, and thereafter find themselves dependent on shady lenders. And such is their fate. Unfortunately, America is Trump’s spouse.