HENRY COOKE/STUFF

Justice Minister Andrew Little's backdown on Three Strikes isn't a huge deal in policy terms - but it shows up a lot of confusion about what exactly counts as Government policy.

ANALYSIS: It's been clear for a long while that Labour's election promises did not all survive the coalition talks untouched.

But there was an assumption that the main thrust of its election manifesto was on its way, and could be assumed to be "Government policy" - unless the promises were specifically struck out in the agreements.

So while NZ First had clearly killed the water tax and some other ideas in negotiations, other Labour priorities were signed, sealed, and waiting to be delivered. In the first 100 days, plenty of Labour policies not mentioned in the coalition documents were delivered, like fees-free tertiary education and the new Best Start payment.

But now we are a long way gone from those first 100 days, and the reliability of Labour's election promises is much murkier. This was highlighted on Monday by Justice Minister Andrew Little's embarrassing backdown on repealing the three strikes law.

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The policy was nixed by NZ First, no doubt about that. Little has now said that NZ First didn't hate the repeal but wanted to consider it as part of a package of reforms instead of one-off. But this is a fig-leaf - Little himself made no mention of this reason in his initial press release, instead saying "NZ First have indicated they would be unlikely to support it," a reality backed by NZ First's later statement headlines "Three Strikes law to remain".

The policy backdown itself is fairly inconsequential - only a single digit number of people have made it to their third strike, and judges can still decide not to use the policy - but its ramifications for our understanding of how the Government works could be huge. This was clear Labour election policy, promoted by a minister just two weeks ago, that has been struck down by a coalition partner who is about to become acting prime minister.

To be fair to Labour and NZ First, there is no line in the coalition agreement which specifically sets out Labour's election manifesto as safe. Instead the agreement notes "the key directions for the first term will be set out in the speech from the throne."

That's the speech the Governor General makes on behalf of the Queen when Parliament opens a new Government, written by Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern. 

It's full of promises - although not particularly specific ones - and it notably does not mention criminal justice reform.

When Health Minister David Clark said he would have to phase in an election promise of cheaper GP visits Ardern pointed to the speech from the throne as set Government policy, specifically dissuading journalists from assuming Labour's election policy was now Government policy.

But that promise was downgraded for fiscal and strategic reasons - basically the Government decided to do even cheaper GP visits for a more specific group of people - and there was still a commitment to get the wider policy over the line at some point within the term.

The backdown on the three strikes repeal is much more serious as it speaks to permanent political constraints, not temporary fiscal ones. It goes to the heart of the insecurity that coalition Government can bring.

There is a possibility that this could be a one-off, a flex for Winston Peters that he won't repeat.

After all, there is plenty of other Labour policy his party is begrudgingly or wholeheartedly onboard with. Law and order is the issue the parties have the most ideological differences on, something National has smartly been exploiting. Presumably the Government is still going to forge ahead with other election promises not contained in the coalition documents.

But with National loading the member's ballot with hard-right law and order policies it's looking more and more possible that National and NZ First will start to pass things that Labour clearly opposes.

This is the reality of coalition government, the prime minister is sure to say in response. The challenge will be setting out exactly what the parameters of that reality is. Right now it's hard to pin them down.

 - Stuff