Theresa May is to urge her MPs to send a message of unity over Brexit this week by reversing Lords amendments to the EU withdrawal bill, with senior government figures saying they are confident a revolt can be headed off.
Ahead of a crucial few days for both the process of Brexit and the prime minister’s authority, May is to address her backbench MPs at the 1922 Committee on Monday evening.
The House of Commons is to consider 15 amendments made to the bill in the Lords, covering areas including giving parliament a meaningful final vote, as well as seeking to keep the UK in the customs union the EEA after departure.
The purpose of the bill is straightforward, May will say, according to extracts of her comments released in advance. “It is putting EU legislation into law to ensure a smooth and orderly transition as we leave.”
She adds: “But the message we send to the country through our votes this week is important. We must be clear that we are united as a party in our determination to deliver on the decision made by the British people.
“They want us to deliver on Brexit and build a brighter future for Britain as we take back control of our money, our laws and our borders.”
The message was reinforced by David Lidington, the Cabinet Office minister and May’s de facto deputy, who said rebel Tory MPs faced a “stark choice”.
“My parliamentary colleagues will have to decide whether to support the government in restoring the bill to its original purpose of delivering legal certainty, or whether to allow hostile amendments to frustrate those essential aims, restricting the government’s ability to negotiate,” he wrote in the Telegraph. “It is profoundly in our national interest that they should choose the first path.”
Ministers and aides have indicated they remain “quietly reassured” that they have the numbers to pass the bill when it returns to the lower chamber on Tuesday.
Ken Clarke, the veteran MP and former chancellor, on Sunday asked rebel MPs to withstand pressure from Tory whips.
But one informed source said that No 10 believed it would have “the numbers to get through” votes on Tuesday and Wednesday without a major defeat. “It will be close, but it will be done,” the source said.
Labour is seeking to keep two crucial amendments after the 15 government defeats in the House of Lords – to maintain a role in the customs union, and to guarantee a role for parliament in approving a final deal.
The Brexiter Dominic Raab, the housing minister, said he was reasonably confident the government had the support to see off the revolt. “People thinking about voting against the government this week need to think very seriously about it,” he said on BBC One’s Sunday Politics programme.
Clarke denied that a defeat would lead to a general election and open the door to a Labour government, claiming it would instead strengthen May’s hand in facing down ministers who want a hard Brexit.
“Nobody in the House of Commons wants a general election. Most Labour MPs are as terrified of the idea of a Corbyn government as I am,” he told the Sunday Politics programme.
Labour is facing a revolt of its own this week, and has tabled a bid to force the government to negotiate a Brexit deal where the UK retains “full access” to the EU’s single market that would ensure “no new impediments” to trade.
The move is designed to convince potential Labour rebels not to support a Lords amendment to keep Britain in the European Economic Area.
Labour will whip its MPs to abstain on that vote but could still see MPs back the Norway option of single market membership.
Q&A What is a customs union and why does it matter?
A customs union is an agreement by a group of countries, such as the EU, to all apply the same tariffs on imported goods from the rest of the world and, typically, eliminate them entirely for trade within the group. By doing this, they can help avoid the need for costly and time-consuming customs checks during trade between members of the union. Asian shipping containers arriving at Felixstowe or Rotterdam, for example, need only pass through customs once before their contents head to markets all over Europe. Lorries passing between Dover and Calais avoid delay entirely.
Customs are not the only checks that count – imports are also scrutinised for conformity with trading standards regulations and security and immigration purposes – but they do play an important role in determining how much friction there is at the border. A strict customs regime at Dover or between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland would lead to delays that will be costly for business and disruptive for travellers. Just-in-time supply chains in industries such as car making could suffer. An Irish peace process built around the principle of entirely unfettered travel between north and south could be jeopardised.
Keir Starmer, the shadow Brexit secretary, used urged Labour to back away from the amendment.
“If you are in the EEA, you are not in a customs union with the EU and to test that proposition, I went to Norway and then I went to the Norway-Sweden border to see for myself,” he said. “There is infrastructure there, there are checks there, you have to hand in your papers. It is totally incompatible with a solemn commitment to no hard border in Northern Ireland.”
May has a working majority of 14 in the Commons and relies on the support of Northern Ireland’s Democratic Unionist party.
In a further development, Vince Cable, the leader of the Liberal Democrats, claimed that a “potentially catastrophic” no-deal Brexit was becoming increasingly possible.
As his party prepares to fight the Lewisham East byelection on a platform of guaranteeing a referendum on any eventual deal, Cable said the longer the government appeared deadlocked over Brexit, the greater risk there was of a no-deal departure.
“I’d always assumed that the government would more or less get something, a divorce settlement plus a vague commitment to sort things out – Brexit in name but probably not in fact,” Cable said.