Global cues, inflation to dictate equity indices trend (Market Outlook)

IANS  |  Mumbai 

Monetary policy announcements by global central banks coupled with the upcoming release of major macro-economic data points on industrial production and inflation are expected to set the trend for the domestic equity indices.

"Next week will have a flurry of economic data for India," Devendra Nevgi, Founder and Principal Partner, Delta Global Partners, told IANS.

"A negative surprise in inflation data would reinforce the hawkish stance of RBI. A weaker external sector data would have an impact on INR, especially during a negative EM (emerging markets) sentiment. IIP (of Industrial Production) would be watched closely for an ongoing economic expansion."

The (CSO) is slated to release the macro-economic data points of IIP and Index) on June 12.

Subsequently, other major macro-economic data points such as WPI (Wholesale Price Index), Current Account Deficit and Balance of Trade figures will be released.

On the global front, monetary policy announcements by the US Federal Reserve, ECB (European Central Bank) and the (BoJ) will form major themes for the upcoming week.

"The rate move and language will set the tone for sentiment in EM as well Indian markets. The key is whether the pays attention to the vulnerable EM situation," Nevgi said.

Besides, the movement of against the US dollar and fluctuations in global will also set the course for the key indices.

On a weekly basis, the weakened by 45 paise to close at 67.51 against the US dollar from its previous close of 67.06 per greenback.

In terms of investments, provisional figures from the stock exchanges showed that foreign institutional investors bought scrips worth Rs 1,367.22 crore during the week ended June 8, 2018.

Figures from the (NSDL) revealed that foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) invested equities worth Rs 3,757.94 crore, or $560.40 million, in the last week.

Additionally, technical charts show that (NSE)'s Nifty50 remains in an intermediate uptrend.

"Technically, with Nifty recovering from the lows of 10,552 points, the intermediate trend remains up," said Deepak Jasani, of Retail Research,

"Further upsides are likely in the coming week once the immediate resistances of 10,814 points are taken out. Crucial supports to watch for any weakness are at 10,618 points."

Last week, the key Indian equity indices -- the Sensex and the NSE Nifty50 -- rose on the back of Reserve Bank of India's "neutral" stance on a future rate hike trajectory, along with its reform measures for the realty, bond and sectors and value buying.

Consequently, the barometer 30-scrip Sensitive (Sensex) of the rose by 216.41 points or 0.61 per cent to 35,443.67 points on a weekly basis.

Similarly, the wider Nifty50 of the NSE closed last week's trade at 10,767.65 points -- up 71.45 points or 0.67 per cent -- from its previous close.

(can be contacted at rohit.v@ians.in)

--IANS

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First Published: Sun, June 10 2018. 14:02 IST