1) Argentina – 10-1
How do you build a team around a player without being reliant on him? The tightrope that Jorge Sampaoli has to tread with Lionel Messi is made of a spider’s silk but if he manages to strike the right balance this could be Argentina’s time. It is 32 years since they won the World Cup, 25 since they won a major tournament, an implausibly barren run for a generation that has included some of football’s great talents. Ángel Di María and Paulo Dybala could do with stepping up to help Messi, as they can, but have not yet. If they do, Argentina will be among the contenders.
2) Belgium – 11-1
No longer the shrewd punter’s tip as dark horses, the Red Devils are now among the genuine challengers. They certainly have the squad: probably the Premier League’s best all-round player in Kevin De Bruyne; Dries Mertens, one of Serie A’s top players; and then there is Thibaut Courtois, Jan Vertonghen, Eden Hazard and Romelu Lukaku. The concern must be Roberto Martínez trying to shoehorn his team into a 3-4-3 system without any real wing-backs. Limp exits in the past few tournaments will also temper optimism, but – if all the moving parts click – they will be formidable.
3) Brazil – 9-2
If only they had had this team four years ago. A better balanced and more accomplished side, with a shrewder manager, there is a refreshing verve to Tite’s team and, perhaps more important, one that is not so reliant on a single player. With Philippe Coutinho, Gabriel Jesus and Roberto Firmino around there is less likely to be a national meltdown if Neymar is absent. Their No 10’s fitness – he has barely played since breaking a toe in February – will be enough to keep them nervous, but they qualified in style and have lost once in 20 games under Tite.
4) France – 13-2
You could make a competitive team from those France left out of their squad, never mind the 23 heading to Russia. There are a few questions to consider: will Paul Pogba perform? Will the team get the most from Antoine Griezmann? Will Hugo Lloris cut out the troubling number of errors he makes for Spurs? But this is an absurdly talented group and other than the complacency that led to them drawing with Luxembourg in the qualifiers perhaps their biggest obstacle to success is Didier Deschamps, a coach who has rarely convinced in the role.
5) Germany – 5-1
It is worth remembering that Germany’s worst World Cup finish since 1938 is the last eight. There is little to suggest generations of consistency will stop this time, and they travel with a squad that is somehow both reasonably youthful – with two outfield players over 30 – and pretty experienced, just two with caps in single figures (and one of those is the reserve goalkeeper). You could point to Manuel Neuer’s fitness, the possibility that Joachim Löw has stayed for too long or some limp performances in friendlies, but that would be splitting hairs.
6) Spain – 13-2
Spain look more like themselves again. After the ignominies of 2014 and 2016, Julen Lopetegui’s side qualified with a swagger and a new generation of talent is combining nicely with the remaining favourites of the old. The only real position you can fault is centre‑forward: likely starter Diego Costa scored a modest seven goals in a fractured domestic season and has sometimes struggled at international level. You might also wonder how a team similar to the one that failed before can succeed now – but there’s enough difference to think Spain can return to glory.