Alliance to dent BJP in 2019 Lok Sabha: Ramdas Athawale

LUCKNOW: Republican Party of India president and minister of state for social justice, Ramdas Athawale said that the mega alliance taking shape in Uttar Pradesh may dent the BJP in 2019 Lok Sabha elections.

"The alliance, if it takes shape, is likely to dent NDA in UP. But even if they come together, BJP will win 50 plus seats in the 2019 Lok Sabha," he told TOI on Saturday. To note, there are 80 parliamentary seats in Uttar Pradesh of which 73 are with BJP.

Athawale stated that it was not easy for political parties to come together. "Bye-elections had a small stake but the road ahead is not easy. Ideologies, policies, vote-banks, consensus over seat distribution - everything will block the way," Athawale said. On the prospects of the performance of the alliance, he said: "they would secure 32-30 seats."

"In fact, the more political parties will try to build a momentum against Prime Minister Modi, the more will he benefit as the public will see that it is one versus all. Then, we will also tell the public about the things that we have done," he added.

Stating that Republican Party of India was working to build a base in UP ahead of 2019 Lok Sabha elections, Athawale said that the BJP would benefit from his exercise. "A good number of Dalits, especially those associated who identify with the Ambedkar movement, were not happy with BSP partnering with SP. If BJP agrees to give us 2-3 seats in 2019, we will be able to upset the opposition's caste equations," he said.

Athawale aims at attracting the disgruntled Dalits to build a base for his party besides bargaining for a couple of MP tickets for his team members. There are reports that several BSP turncoats were already on board with Athawale to take the plan forward.

Sources said that BJP was evaluating all scenarios of an alliance against them. While the first one keeps SP-BSP together, the second one sees union of Congress and BSP for contesting elections. The grand mega alliance between SP, BSP, Congress and RLD if the third scenario. In all the three situations, Dalits and Muslims voters will play a crucial role.

BJP insiders confided that that Republican Party of India may serve as platform to attract Dalits who do not believe in Mayawati's school of dalit politics. "Mayawati represents Jatavs who form the biggest chunk of dalit voters. But it is a known fact that Pasis (15 per cent of Dalits) go against Jatavs as they feel that Jatavs had never given the other dalits a chance to avail benefit of reservation and various schemes. Dhobis, Koris, Sonkars, Dhanuks and others also feel the same. RPI can serve as a magnet that draws this disguntled lot," said a senior leader in UP BJP.

Athawale's association the Ambedkarite movement adds weight to the arguement. A poet and painter, the 59-year old leader was one of the founders of Dalit Panther who enjoys immense popularity among dalit masses even today. The fact that like BR Ambedkar, Athawale belongs to Mahaar sub-caste among Dalits and that the took to Buddhism later - creates a reflection of Ambedkar in Athawale.

Political observers in Maharashtra also believe Athawale's list of rivals include BR Ambedkar's grandson Prakash Ambedkar and Vidarbha-based Jogendra Kawade. "He retains a rare personal warmth and accessibility which many leaders lack. Also, his commitment to Dalit cause appears to be above symbolism which can help him create a base in UP," said a senior political commentator.