Northcote by-election no Northland as both National and Labour can claim victory
National leader Simon Bridges needed victory in Northcote.
OPINION: Simon Bridges had everything to lose and Jacinda Ardern the most to gain in an upset result in Northcote. Defeat for National would have been seen as a referendum on Bridges' leadership; a win for Ardern would have been a huge upset – a filip for Labour, a big tick for its Budget and a finger in the air to the campaign against the Auckland regional petrol tax.
In the end, however, it didn't happen. National's candidate Dan Bidois won comfortably, though with a significantly reduced majority compared to the incumbent Jonathan Coleman.
That was largely due to a reduced turnout – when Coleman won in 2017 with a majority of 6210 turnout was about 36995, compared with 21,000 this weekend.
Jacinda Ardern's presence in Northcote in the final week showed that Labour was taking the race seriously.
But it meant both sides could claim victory.
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In the end, however, the result will be seen as a vote for the status quo, though National will claim it as something more.
National candidate Dan Bidois and campaigners in the North Shore suburb of Birkenhead.
Labour will be counting itself lucky that it was always seen as the under dog. In truth, the result could have gone either way. Northcote has a reputation as a bellwether seat, its election night results often mirroring the wider national trend.
That Labour saw itself as having a sniff of a chance was evident by the number of times Ardern was there campaigning. But as long as Labour was the underdog, she could afford to do so.
Bridges, on the other hand, was careful not to overplay his hand in the electorate. National kept the by-election determinedly local, having learnt the lesson of Northland when it flooded the seat with promises and ministers in their Crown cars. The locals saw right through them and elected Winston Peters as a protest vote.
It was a reminder that by-elections can take on a life of their own.
So National will be happy to claim the win – and Labour will be happy it was hardly a trouncing either.
Win, win.
- Stuff
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