Beachcomber: 101 years old and still an authority on everything
A YOUNG lady just rang me and asked whether I was aware that 79 per cent of people bluff about things about which they know nothing. “I am not surprised,” I said.
“I would probably bluff too if I ever found myself in a conversation about a subject on which I am not an acknowledged authority.”
“Are you really an authority on everything?” she asked. “Most things,” I said, modestly. “I tend to avoid conversations on things I do not know about, such as popular music or Daghestan spoonboxes.”
“What about Brexit?” she asked.
“According to a survey we’ve just done, 34 per cent of people in this country admit they have no idea what’s going on with Brexit at the moment.”
“Before I respond to that figure,” I said, “may I ask the reason behind your doing such a survey?” “It’s for Haynes Publishing,” she said.
“We’re bringing out a new edition of Bluffer’s Guide books including a new Bluffer’s Guide to Brexit.”
“In that case,” I said, “I hope I am in time to correct your figures.”
“What?” she squeaked in alarm. “What’s wrong with them?”
“You said that 79 per cent of people are bluffers, then went on to say that 34 per cent of people admit they know nothing about Brexit. That means that 66 per say they know about Brexit. Has it not occurred to you that 79 per cent of those 66 per cent are probably bluffing?
"And 79 per cent of 66 per cent amounts to 52.14 per cent which should be added to your 34 per cent figure, boosting the real percentage of people who don’t know about Brexit to 86.14 per cent.”
I added: “Actually, it is even worse, because if we go back to that original 79 per cent figure for bluffers, has it not occurred to you that some of the remaining 21 per cent who say they are not bluffers may well be bluffing?
“Indeed, if we make the reasonable assumption that 79 per cent of them are bluffing, that increases the percentage of bluffers by 79 per cent of 21 per cent, which equals 16.59 per cent, making a total of 95.59 per cent. So of the 66 per cent of people who say they know about Brexit, 63.09 per cent are bluffing, leaving us with only 2.91 per cent of people actually knowing something.
“There are currently 23 members of the Cabinet, plus another six ministers who attend Cabinet meetings. That’s a total of 29 and 2.91 per cent of 29 is only 0.84. So the number of people at yesterday’s cabinet meeting about Brexit who actually knew about it was somewhere between zero and one. The rest were bluffing.”
“We must send them all our Bluffer’s Guide without further delay,” she said.
“Er … are you sure you’re right about this? You’re not bluffing, are you?”
“All right,” I said.
“You’ve caught me out. Contrary to what I said, I do know quite a bit about Daghestan spoonboxes, having read Robert Chenciner’s splendid 2006 treatise Tattooed Mountain Women and Spoonboxes of Daghestan. But all my other comments are true,” and we left it at that.