LOS ANGELES - With the primary season reaching its halfway point, one of the most hopeful signs for the Democrats thus far is the fact that they are not letting their passions get the best of them. They are keeping their sights on what it will take to win.
Chief among those things it will take: appealing candidates who are capable of running competent campaigns.
This week’s primaries, particularly the ones that took place in a trove of potential November pickup opportunities for Democrats in California, represented the trickiest turn in the calendar yet.
California’s ballot was crowded with well-funded, first-time contenders. The danger was that they would run each other off the road, thanks to the state’s unusual system whereby candidates of all parties are lumped into a single primary, with only the top two finishers proceeding to the general election.
Nowhere did those fears of a shutout materialize.
Though votes are still being counted in some races, it is clear that Democrats will be on the ballot in all the toss-up districts in California - in large part because their voters focused on sorting through a long list of unfamiliar names and making sure that viable contenders survived.
History, of course, argues that the midterm elections in a president’s first term go well for the out-of-power party. And President Donald Trump’s unpopularity has made the environment even more favorable for the opposition. Polls consistently show Democrats are significantly more enthusiastic about voting this year.
Still, candidate quality has become all the more important as the November general election approaches, because some of the macro political forces have been ticking in the Republicans’ direction. (Continued below.)
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The country is also more polarized than it has been in previous “wave” elections, which means the slice of swing voters has become even smaller. The gerrymandering of congressional district lines drawn by governors and legislatures, a majority of which are Republican - has tilted the playing field in favor of the GOP. And turnout numbers in the primaries thus far have not been overwhelming, which suggests that a strategy that depends on a surge of new and low-propensity voters in the fall is risky.
GOP hopes to avoid a catastrophe are being buoyed by the robust state of the economy, a slight improvement in Trump’s approval rating and less discontent among voters over the general direction in which the country is heading.
“If the election were today, we would keep the House,” said Corry Bliss, who heads the Congressional Leadership Fund, a super PAC aligned with House Speaker Paul Ryan, R-Wis.
But the Democrats’ emerging Class of 2018 is shaping up to be a strong one. The candidates are young and diverse, with outsider credentials that put them in good stead to run against the mess in Washington. My colleague Michael Scherer has tallied the Democratic nominees picked to date in nearly three dozen closely contested House districts: Half are women, six are miliary veterans, and seven are African American, Latino or Asian.
With few exceptions - such as liberal Kara Eastman, who won an upset victory over an establishment candidate in an Omaha-area district - these candidates do not represent the fervent leading edge of the anti-Trump resistance.
They have, by and large, been anointed by the Democratic establishment - with the national party occasionally intervening on behalf of its favored candidates against ones its has deemed too liberal for the districts in which they are running.
On the stump, the more successful Democratic contenders are generally stressing local concerns and steering clear of impeachment talk or prejudging the outcome of the investigation into Russian interference in the 2016 election.
Many are also emphasizing their unconventional biographies. When Democratic House contender Gil Cisneros dropped by a Rotary Club lunch last week in La Habra Heights, California, most of the questions he got were about what it had been like to win a record $266 million in the California lottery in 2010 and then use part of his winnings to endow an education philanthropy.
Cisneros beat out all but one of the 16 other contenders in Tuesday’s 39th District primary. In November’s general election, he will face GOP former assemblywoman Young Kim for a seat in an Orange County district once considered reliably Republican but that Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton carried in 2016.
If Democrats are to take back the House in November, winning in places such asthat one will be the key. A wave may be out there somewhere, but Democrats know that it helps to start with candidates who know how to swim.