Best exacta, trifecta and superfecta bets for the 2018 Belmont Stakes

Justify’s quest for the Triple Crown on Saturday at Belmont Park is a great story line, but it’s a terrible betting proposition. The Bob Baffert-trained colt is the 4-5 morning line favorite and figures to be bet down even further, perhaps as low as the 3-4 odds American Pharoah held when he won the Triple Crown during the 2015 Belmont Stakes.

Favorites like Justify don’t often win the “Test of Champions,” and when they do they pay miserly odds. That means we need to get creative in the exotic wagers such as the exacta, trifecta and superfecta to have a chance at a potential windfall.

The exacta, a wager which necessitates you choose two horses to finish in first and second place, in an exact order, is a good place to start. The median payout on a $2 exacta since 2000 has been $130 and in three of the past five years the payout has been $269 or more.

Luckily, it has been relatively easy to narrow the field to a few horses that can be viewed as contenders in the Belmont Stakes.

For example, over the past 12 years, 10 of the winning horses in the Belmont Stakes had a dosage index,  the ratio of speed to stamina, between 2.10 and 3.00. The only outliers are American Pharoah (4.33 dosage index) in 2015 and Drosselmeyer in 2010 (1.75). Plus, 11 of the 12 winners were foaled in April or earlier. Just one, Palace Malice, had a foal date in May. Nine of the past 12 winners satisfied both categories. In Saturday’s “Run for the Carnations,” six entrants have both a dosage between 2.10 and 3.00 plus a foal date before May 1: Justify, Bravazo, Hofburg, Gronkowski, Tenfold and Noble Indy.

An exacta with Justify on top has a good chance to be an underlay — payoff odds lower than its actual chance of winning — so it is probably best to avoid him in the winner’s spot. Noble Indy’s dosage falls in the right range but his pedigree on the dam side is loaded with speed, making his optimal distance closer to nine furlongs. His dam sire’s average winning distance (6.3 furlongs) is also the lowest in the field, limiting him to place or show, if at all.

Gronkowski, despite the correct dosage, has flaws of his own, notably success on the turf and synthetic surfaces but not dirt, with all but one of his six career starts run at a mile. Personally, that’s enough for me to toss him out of the win spot, leaving Bravazo, Hofburg and Tenfold for the top of an exacta with all those plus Justify for second.

Those four horses — Justify, Bravazo, Hofburg and Tenfold — could be the foundation for your trifecta and superfecta tickets, too, especially since there is a real possibility that Justify, because of his post position on the rail, expends a lot of energy at the start of the race to avoid getting shuffled back behind horses, setting up the chance for either Bravazo, Tenfold or Hofburg to stalk the pace early with a late kick. Then look for Justify, Vino Rosso and perhaps Blended Citizen to also be around to pick up the pieces for a second or third place finish. As for the fourth place horse: your best bet is to go with the “all” button just to play it safe,

Exacta: 3, 4, 7 with 1, 3, 4, 7

Trifecta: 3, 4, 7 with 1, 3, 4, 7, 8, 10 with 1, 3, 4, 7, 8, 10 

Superfecta: 3, 4, 7 with 1, 3, 4, 7, 8, 10 with 1, 3, 4, 7, 8, 10 with all

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