An attack on Hodeida would cause a humanitarian disaster, warns the UN
YEMENI forces backed by Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) have been on a roll lately. Over the past month the coalition has pushed 80km north (see map), repelling the Houthis, a group of Shia rebels that chased the government out of Sana’a, the capital, in 2015. It is now 12km from Hodeida, the main port, which is held by the Houthis.
Were it to take Hodeida, the coalition could further squeeze Houthi-controlled areas, where most Yemenis live. The port is Yemen’s primary conduit for humanitarian aid, which 22m people, or 80% of the population, depend on. War would disrupt the flow, leaving 8m people at risk of starvation, says the UN.
The UN and some Western governments have urged the coalition to stop. Six times over the past two years, humanitarian appeals and American pressure have staved off an Emirati-led attack on Hodeida. But control of the port would bring the coalition closer to its goal of regaining the entire coastal plain, landlocking the Houthis and giving it more leverage in peace talks.
The main fighting force is led by the UAE, which has already taken several Yemeni ports in the south. It commands a force comprised of three Yemeni groups. The largest consists of southern fighters, often with Salafist and separatist leanings. They have been joined by northern fighters once loyal to Ali Abdullah Saleh, a former dictator whom the Houthis killed in December when Saleh broke off their alliance. Local Sunnis, who call themselves the Tihama (coastal plain) resistance, also lend support. All told, they number over 20,000.
The Houthis, meanwhile, are showing signs of attrition. Many were demoralised by the death of Saleh al-Sammad, the head of their political council, in a Saudi air strike in April. Warlords have swept down from the mountains to reinforce Houthi positions. But many Yemenis feel alienated by the zealous highlanders. Sunnis in the coastal plains are particularly disgruntled. Should Hodeida fall, they could provide the coalition with fresh recruits.
Martin Griffiths, the UN envoy to Yemen, hopes a deal on Hodeida will lead to new peace talks. As The Economist went to press, he was heading to the UAE with a Houthi promise to leave the port if the UN runs it. In return, the UN hopes the coalition will allow the central bank to resume paying civil servants in rebel-held areas.
One man could stand in the way. Muhammad bin Salman, the crown prince of Saudi Arabia, entered the war in 2015 at the invitation of the government. With a chance finally to hobble the Houthis, and stick it to their Iranian backers, he may not want peace.