With the glut of news and the nonstop tweeting from President Trump, it is natural for those who are news-obsessed to assume that the electorate reacts to each event. Trade war — boo! LeBron James bashes Trump — yay! Even if voters are watching, what we’ve seen over the past year or so is that there is remarkably little shift in opinion. A blip here and there convinces one side or another that political fortunes are changing. (Generic lead disappears!) In fact, opinions about Trump and the midterms are defined by their consistency.

In late May, Charlie Cook warned: “It is amazing to note how stable President Trump’s poll numbers are, regardless of positive or negative developments. … Why are his numbers so stable? Some of this has to do with Trump but much does not. One reason surely is that partisanship is very strong, and the two major parties are so thoroughly sorted out along ideological lines.” However, it is also the case that events are cushioned or ignored altogether by media that reflect their own views. (Cook added: “Many have remarked that we have developed ideological silos — liberals moving to the left, conservatives to the right, building an ideological intensity far greater than what we used to see. Increasingly, many Americans are creating their own media cocoons.”)

In any event, Trump remains unpopular, while Democrats remain highly engaged — their anti-Trump intensity reflected in polling and by turnout in primaries.

In a Quinnipiac poll, for example, “Republicans, white voters with no college degree and white men are the only listed party, gender, education, age or racial groups with a clear positive approval rating.” His approval is at net minus-11. Despite a tiny blip up in his favorability (relating, it seems, to North Korea), the assessment of Trump’s personality is fixed. “American voters still give President Trump negative grades on most character traits: 59-35 percent say he is not honest; 56-41 percent say he does not have good leadership skills; 55-42 percent say he does not care about average Americans; 64-32 percent say he is not level-headed. . . . 61-35 percent say he does not share their values; and 69-27 percent say he is not a good role model for children.” Majorities do think he is a strong person (62 percent) and intelligent (58 percent).

When it comes to Congress, “American voters say 47-40 percent, including 44-35 percent among independent voters, that they want to see the Democratic Party win control of the U.S. House of Representatives this year. Voters say 48-41 percent, including 45-38 percent among independent voters, that they want the Democratic Party to win control of the U.S. Senate in this year’s elections.” According to the RealClearPolitics poll, that spread has widened and narrowed at times, but has remained more or less constant since February.

The Economist-YouGov poll likewise shows, “The President’s overall approval rating remains low: 39% approve, 53% do not. With few exceptions, that has been where his approval rating has stayed throughout this year. It peaked in early May when the first discussions about a possible summit took place.” Democrats have a generic-poll lead of 6 points, statistically no different from the Quinnipiac poll.

And then there is the NBC News-Wall Street Journal poll. Despite a 4-point rise in Trump’s approval rating, it finds: “By a whopping 25-point margin, voters say they’re more likely to back a congressional candidate who promises to serve as a check on President Donald Trump … Democrats enjoy a 10-point advantage on congressional preference, with 50 percent of registered voters wanting a Democratic-controlled Congress, versus 40 percent who want a GOP-controlled one.” That’s up a few points from April. Perhaps most important, “Democrats are more enthusiastic about the upcoming midterms, with 63 percent of them registering either a ‘9’ or ’10’ on a 10-point scale of interest, while just 47 percent of Republicans signal the same level of enthusiasm.” Moreover, the poll finds: “A majority — 53 percent — say they’re less likely to vote for a candidate who supports the president on most issues.”

Now these are national generic polls. While they look fairly strong for Democrats, a seat-by-seat examination of Democrats’ prospects seems brighter than the national numbers would suggest. “A more micro-political, seat-by-seat analysis by The Cook Political Report looks like we could see a Democratic gain of anywhere from 20 to 40 seats,” says Cook. “They need 23 to gain the speaker’s gavel back, while a 40-seat gain would create a Democratic majority somewhat more narrow than the one Republicans have today.” And regrettably for Republicans, it is the president’s numbers that pose the greatest problem. (“In four of the past eight midterm elections, the sitting president’s final pre-election Gallup approval rating was 56 percent or higher. In those four midterms, incumbent party losses were minimal. In the other four, presidential approval rating stood at 46 percent or lower. Those elections resulted in a seven-seat average net loss for the president’s party in the Senate, and 40 seats in the House.”)

In the California races, the Cook Political Report’s David Wasserman ranks five GOP-held seats as either toss-ups or better for Democrats. In New Jersey, three GOP-held seats range from likely Democratic to toss-up, with one more as a lean Republican. Overall, Wasserman puts two GOP seats as likely Democratic, four current GOP seats as lean Democrat, and 23 GOP seats in the toss-up column. That totals 29 GOP seats that are toss-up or worse, while only three Democratic seats are in that category.

Less than five months until the midterm elections, Democrats look well-positioned — but by no means guaranteed — to win the House majority. And the biggest reason remains the president’s low approval, despite a very strong economy.