October elections may have something to do with it
THEY have been living in tents in parks and community centres and the authorities are straining to care for them. But 23 years after the end of the Bosnian war, which saw 2.2m people, or half the population, displaced, the new refugees in Bosnia are Syrians, Afghans, Iraqis and others. Some 500 a week have recently been crossing into the country, on what they hope is their way to western Europe.
The Balkan route to Europe from Syria via Turkey closed in 2016, so it has been a big surprise that so many refugees have suddenly started turning up. Some are fleeing recent fighting, but most are not. According to Peter Van der Auweraert, of the International Organisation for Migration, the majority of the new arrivals are people who have been stuck in Serbia or Greece and, frustrated by their situation, are trying this new route. Refugee centres in Serbia are rapidly emptying out. Others come via Albania and Montenegro.
Last year only 755 new refugees were registered in Bosnia; this year the number has already reached almost 5,000, of whom half may have already left for Croatia, an EU member since 2013 and formerly, with Bosnia, part of Yugoslavia. On May 30th Croatian police opened fire on a van with migrants crossing from Bosnia, injuring two children. Ministers from the region are due to hold a meeting on the mounting crisis in Sarajevo, the Bosnian capital, on June 7th.
In an effort to halt the flow, Bosnia has sent extra police to its borders with Serbia and Montenegro. Hungary, which built a highly effective fence on its border with Serbia to stop illegal crossings, has promised 23km of razor wire fencing to Montenegro to help seal parts of its border with Albania. Among the refugees are a new category. Some 10% are Iranians. Last year Serbia and Iran stopped requiring visas for each other’s citizens. In March cheap direct flights between the two countries began.
The new arrivals, most of them Muslims, have stirred up political argument. When Bosnia’s bloody war ended in 1995 the country was divided into two; the mainly-Serb Republika Srpska and the Bosniak (Muslim) and Croat Federation. Milorad Dodik, the president of Republika Srpska, claims that Bosniak politicians have a secret plan to import Muslim migrants to change Bosnia’s demography and thereby take control of the whole country. In fact, few of them want to stay. But with elections looming in October, facts do not stand in the way of political point-scoring.