This article is part of the Guardian’s 2018 World Cup Experts’ Network, a cooperation between some of the best media organisations from the 32 countries who have qualified for Russia. theguardian.com is running previews from two countries each day in the run-up to the tournament kicking off on 14 June.
Despite arguments that 4-3-3 might be a better fit, Croatia’s default formation has long been 4-2-3-1 – with the odd foray into a 4-4-2 midfield diamond. Zlatko Dalic made a significant change immediately after taking over as manager (two days before the deciding group game against Ukraine in the qualifiers), moving Luka Modric to the No 10 position, a role the Real Madrid player has rarely occupied since his early days. The Modric-Ivan Rakitic conundrum was a stumbling block for Dalic’s predecessors, who struggled to harness both stars’ playmaking skills coherently; the new coach’s solution paid off in Kiev and in the play-off against Greece.
Croatia had grown increasingly dependent on Modric. He had previously organised play from as deep as the edge of his own box, carrying out a lot of defensive work too. Whoever played in front of him – generally Rakitic, Marcelo Brozovic or Mateo Kovacic – rarely provided killer passes and Croatia chiefly attacked down the flanks, which was odd for a team packed with midfield talent.
Now Modric, playing much higher up, has much less time and space on the ball and his passing statistics are nowhere near as impressive. But the benefits may outweigh the drawbacks: Dalic hopes Modric’s intelligence and movement will bring more incision. Rakitic has to play deeper, engaging in more defensive challenges and hopefully shuttling passes forward. It also means there is no room for either Brozovic or Kovacic. Instead Dalic needs someone who can provide a bit more balance and, while he does not have a true holding midfielder, Fiorentina’s Milan Badelj fits the mould better than anyone.
Monaco’s Danijel Subasic is a certain starter in goal, with Sime Vrsaljko and, probably, Ivan Strinic the full-backs. Domagoj Vida, Dejan Lovren and Vedran Corluka will compete for two centre-back spots. Corluka used to hold an advantage by way of seniority but he has been injured a lot lately. Although Croatia are unlikely to play a high line, the other two seem a safer bet.
The right side of the attack is usually busier than the left, with Vrsaljko advancing very high up and the winger – be it Andrej Kramaric, Mario Mandzukic or someone else – cutting inside. Modric will also appear there as Croatia look to overload that zone of the pitch.
Left-back has long been regarded as a weak spot and many opponents have looked to exploit it. Although it is true that Croatia lack a top-class player three, it is also a question of needing to provide more defensive cover for Ivan Perisic. The Internazionale player switches from running into half-space to more conventional left-wing play, while contributing little in the other direction and often leaving the team-mate behind him exposed.
Perisic, despite some weaker performances in recent games and the challenge posed by younger players such as Ante Rebic and Marko Pjaca, is likely to keep his place. Kramaric and Mandzukic are likely to swap positions in attack, meaning the centre-forward position is either occupied by a robust striker (Mandzukic) or a more flexible attacker (Kramaric). Nikola Kalinic is the next in line to play up front.
However their attack lines up, Croatia’s starting XI has an average age of nearly 30 and they will be one of the oldest teams at the World Cup.
Probable starting XI
Which player is going to surprise everyone at the 2018 World Cup?
Andrej Kramaric, with his versatility and tendency to exploit space between the lines, gives Croatia an unpredictable dimension they have lacked for a long time. He could be crucial.
Which player is likely to disappoint?
Dejan Lovren has never been trusted in Croatia, failing to work particularly well with any of his centre-back partners in the national team. He is likely to replace the injury-hampered Corluka in the starting XI, and looks likely to be the usual suspect.
What is the realistic aim for Croatia at the World Cup and why?
“Anything is possible in the knockout rounds” has been the mantra of every Croatia team since the nation’s ascent to the big stage. Croatia can beat anyone on a good day; they can, however, also lose to just about anyone. Although they have not made it to the last 16 since 1998, getting that far is the minimum expectation for the most talented generation the country has produced in the two decades since.
Aleksandar Holiga writes for Telesport.
Follow him on Twitter here.
Click here for a profile of Croatia’s Andrej Kramaric.