In May 2014, the seat tally of the BJP and its allies looked pretty impressive: 282 for BJP and 336 for NDA. In four years since then, 27 by-elections have been held. The ruling party and its allies have not been able to add a single new seat, while the Congress and other opposition parties have not only held onto every single seat for which a by-election has been held but also managed to win nine seats from the BJP and its alliance partners. Of the nine seats gained by the opposition, the Congress has won four, the Samajwadi party — two, and the Nationalist Congress, Rashtriya Lok Dal and National Conference — one each.
Thus, the outcome of the parliamentary by-elections since 2014 has not been a happy one for the BJP and its allies: They have gained nothing but held onto only seven seats. The opposition, on the other hand, has gained nine seats and held onto 11 seats. If not unduly worrying, the outcome of all the Lok Sabha by-elections in the last four years should be a matter of concern for the ruling alliance as the BJP’s tally of elected MPS is down to 271, while that of the NDA is at 327. Though the BJP still enjoys a majority in parliament with 273 seats, which includes two nominated members, the trend line should be a wake-up call for the BJP which is aiming for a second term in 2019.
Last Thursday’s results of the four parliamentary and 11 assembly by-elections held on May 28 have brought in even more bad news for the BJP. Till a year ago, the BJP looked unbeatable and almost certain to win the 2019 Lok Sabha polls. Then came a brief period of doubts and after Gujarat in December 2017, it accelerated into a descent for the ruling party and its allies. Last week’s by-poll results suggest that the equation is changing quite fast. Of the four Lok Sabha by-polls, Kairana in Uttar Pradesh is more significant because, after Gorakhpur and Phoolpur, the victory of the opposition in Kairana sends out a definite message: A united opposition will be the toughest opponent for the BJP in UP where it won an unprecedented 73 of the 80 seats in 2014 and repeated a similar feat in 2017 assembly election by winning 324 seats of the 403-member assembly.
The Kairana by-poll has also busted the popular perception that Modi is unbeatable. After scripting two successive massive electoral victories for the BJP in UP, the Modi-Amit Shah combine did look invincible till the middle of 2017. But, Gujarat election marked the upturn for the Congress and subsequent by-polls in March turned the focus on opposition unity. Now, it seems possible that the Modi-Shah combine can be successfully challenged if the opposition parties get their chemistry and arithmetic right. Not only the BJP has lost seats to the opposition in successive by-polls, its vote share has also come down and its victory margins have declined in the seats it has held on to. This suggests a decline in popularity of both — the prime minister and his party. It also suggests that anti-incumbency is catching up with the BJP/NDA.
One important takeaway from UP, and particularly Kairana, is that the BJP’s communal card and the incessant demonisation of Muslims has its limits and is clearly producing diminishing returns. Another key takeaway is that the opposition has no choice but to unite. The message is quite unambiguous: United you stand and divided the BJP rules. In 2014, the BJP not only scored an electoral victory against the Congress and other opposition parties but also won a great psychological battle. The BJP’s victory in terms of seats, particularly in UP, not only reduced the opposition to its lowest seat tally but also left it completely demoralised. After Gorakhpur and Phoolpur, Kairana suggests that it will be a lot of hard work for Modi and BJP in 2019.
If 2014 was a Modi-wave election, 2019 may be a wave-less election. In 2014, Modi told a compelling story of socio-economic change, good times, development and ‘new India’ that found an instant connect with voters. Now, as an incumbent, he does not have the advantage of selling over-the-narrative and promising the same dreamy stuff once again. Modi has also exhausted the advantage of demonising the Congress, dynastic rule and Nehru. By now it has been done to death and the sameness of his criticism of one family rule has also lost its USP. The corruption story has also lost its relevance as the Congress has already paid a price for it. Therefore, Modi will need a new narrative for 2019. An average economic performance will not make a compelling story. Neither will it make sense to glorify 7 per cent growth when it has not delivered jobs for the unemployed or made any difference to the lives of ordinary citizens.
It is easier to talk about growth and reforms to intellectuals, the learned and the aspirational middle class but not the working class and farmers who see a different reality on ground. In absence of a compelling story about his performance on economic and development fronts, political experts believe that Modi may turn to a disruptive and polarising narrative aimed at consolidating the Hindu vote. But, whether such a narrative will yield fruitful results is difficult to fathom. In Kairana, for instance, it didn’t work. Though, by-elections are poor predictors of the national trend, real issues like farmers’ grievances, agrarian distress, job crisis and rising fuel prices that matter more to the voters are there for the opposition to make a lot of noise about and weave a convincing narrative to woo voters in urban and rural India.
In 2014, Modi single-handedly scripted the BJP’s victory against a splintered opposition. Though BJP is hoping that Modi will repeat similar feat in 2019, opposition unity could make it difficult for him to repeat his 2014 electoral performance. Anti-incumbency, social fissures and a sense of insecurity among the minorities are likely to make the BJP’s road to 2019 a tricky journey. This is what the opposition parties have realised and it makes a compelling case for them to put a united fight against the BJP. However, in the likelihood of ‘Modi-versus-the-rest’ battle, the electoral arithmetic is tough for both — the BJP and the opposition. Modi will need an out-of-the-box idea to win a second term, while the opposition will need a compelling narrative to win the voters’ confidence.
A L I Chougule is an independent senior journalist.