WASHINGTON With President Donald Trump's approval ratings below 50 percent and control of the U.S. House at stake, Republicans are being forced to spend money and time trying to hold two Ohio seats they normally would not have to worry about.
Although the GOP is favored to retain control of the 12th Congressional District seat left vacant by the retirement of Rep. Pat Tiberi and the 1st Congressional District slot held by Steve Chabot, political analysts say it will be nearly impossible for the Republicans to retain control of the House if they lose either post.
Because a president's party traditionally loses seats in off-year elections, Democrats increasingly are confident Trump's dizzying tariffs-on, tariffs-off decisions on trade, blended with an ongoing investigation into his 2016 campaign, will make it easier for them to win the 23 seats needed to take the House for the first time since 2010.
In addition, national Democrats are kicking the tires on another campaign in Ohio in which Rep. Bob Gibbs, R-Lakeville, is fending off an aggressive challenge from Democrat Ken Harbaugh of Avon.
"If the Democrats netted a seat in Ohio, it probably is suggestive they are winning the House," said Kyle Kondik, managing editor of a major political website at the University of Virginia's Center for Politics. "The Democrats can win the House without winning any seats in Ohio."
Rep. Tim Ryan, D-Niles, who has been campaigning for Democratic candidates, said, "We literally may have three shots in Ohio."
To Republicans, Democrats are engaged in wishful thinking. The nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office projects the economy will expand at a brisk 3 percent this year, while Ohio's unemployment rate has tumbled to 4.3 percent with non-farm payrolls at 5.52 million people, compared to 5.2 million during the depths of the 2008 recession.
While Trump is unpopular in a number of states, internal polls suggest his approval rating in Ohio has been steady at 46 percent. Ohio Republicans were careful in 2011 to draw congressional districts favorable to their candidates, which will make it difficult for Democrat Susan Moran Palmer to defeat Republican Anthony Gonzalez in the Northeast Ohio seat left vacant when Republican Jim Renacci of Wadsworth decided to run for U.S. Senate.
"We're talking about seats which are reliably Republican, and Ohio is seemingly handling Trump's America with fewer speed bumps than most other states," said Jeff Sadosky, a Republican consultant in Washington. "Trump polls better in Ohio than he is in in other states like Virginia and Colorado."
Corry Bliss, who directs a political action committee helping Republican House candidates, said "there's a better chance of (former Gov. Ted Strickland) coming out of retirement and winning a statewide race than us losing any of those seats. I hope the Democrats spend all their money in Ohio."
Yet, privately, GOP officials acknowledge their party is facing the type of turbulence that often leads to major political defeats. No fewer than 48 House Republicans, including Speaker Paul Ryan of Wisconsin, will not seek re-election, a sure sign they believe their prospects of holding the House are gloomy.
In addition, Chabot and Republican Troy Balderson, who is running for the Tiberi seat, are competing in districts that are home to large numbers of suburbanites, many of whom are women and object to Trump's style, such as his incendiary tweets and his attorney paying off a porn star before the 2016 presidential election.
The GOP also has to contend with special counsel Robert Mueller's investigation into whether the Trump campaign in 2016 colluded with Russian officials to damage Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton's campaign. Nobody can predict with any certainty whether Mueller will bring charges against additional Trump advisers.
"The map Republicans drew can hold up in good years for their party, but it may be under stress when there is an unpopular president," said David Wasserman, a congressional analyst for the nonpartisan Cook Political Report in Washington.
To counter potential losses, Republicans sent Paul Ryan into Columbus, Dayton and Cincinnati last week to raise money for Republican candidates. He took in about $700,000. Ryan and Sen. Rob Portman, R-Ohio, hosted a $2,700 per person fundraiser Wednesday for Balderson at a lobbyist's home in Dublin.
They also argue the 10-year, $1.5 trillion tax cut Trump signed last year will prove a political plus, with Sadosky saying that "if Republicans can effectively make a case on it and not have their message diluted by the tweet of the day, there is real upside."
Tim Ryan dismissed the GOP optimism as nonsense.
"We're moving into a newer era of what a good economy means. The question is: A good economy for whom?" he said. "It's not just about employment. It's about wages, pensions and security. I see it every day. The anxiety is still there."
A key race to watch is the contest between Gibbs and Harbaugh in the 7th Congressional District, which includes Ashland, Tuscarawas, Holmes counties and parts of Stark and Lorain counties. Although Wasserman said "we don't currently see the Gibbs seat as competitive," other analysts warn if a major anti-Trump wave develops, Gibbs could lose.
"To me the 12th and the 1st clearly stand out, and if I would list a third, it would be the 7th, because Harbaugh is running a credible race even though the district is really Republican," Kondik said.
GateHouse Washington Bureau reporter Jessica Wehrman contributed to this story.