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In recent months, there has been a lot of talk among Democrats and Republicans alike about a so-called blue wave in this November’s midterm elections that will tilt the makeup of Congress in favor of the Democrats and may even give them a majority in the House.
Indeed, as Democrats have won special elections in surprising places like Alabama and Western Pennsylvania, more and more Republicans have decided to retire from Congress rather than run what looks like an uphill race for re-election. When House Speaker Paul Ryan announced his own decision to retire, many took this as the latest sign that the writing is on the wall for Republicans.
Yet recently, this narrative seems to have turned. Political news outlet The Hill declared that “[e]lection fears recede for Republicans” as polling generically asking voters whether they prefer a Democrat or a Republican has tightened. Political website FiveThirtyEight’s estimate of all generic polling gives Democrats an edge of 5.9 percentage points — which may seem like a lot, but has to be understood in the context of gerrymandered House districts that give Republicans a significant cushion.
A blue wave is far from certain, but it’s also not clear that Republicans can hold on to their majorities in Congress.
The reality is almost certainly somewhere in between — in other words, a blue wave is far from certain, but it’s also not clear that Republicans can hold on to their majorities in Congress. Analyst Kyle Kondik of Sabato’s Crystal Ball, who has never seen Democrats as clearly favored as they are this fall, estimates their chances of winning a majority in the House of Representatives at about 50-50. In other words, it could go either way.
Democrats — and anyone who is concerned about the danger the Trump presidency poses to American constitutional democracy — should take some lessons from this landscape. First, being overconfident would be a big mistake. It is entirely possible that Republicans will retain control of Congress after the midterm elections. Democrats ought to think about how best to focus their message.
But that’s not enough. Since there is of course no guarantee that Democrats will win control of either chamber of Congress this fall, they need a backup plan. The stakes are just too high: congressional Republicans refuse to engage in the most basic of oversight and are allowing Donald Trump to conduct his presidency as a kleptocratic enterprise bent on undermining the rule of law. If Republicans retain control of Congress, there is every reason to be concerned that this will continue — and therefore every reason to think about ways to change the script even if Democrats are unable to change the balance of power in the legislative branch. Moreover, even if Democrats do prevail this fall, larger problems in the American political culture will remain to be addressed.
Country ahead of party’ cannot apply only to Republicans.
What does this mean, in practice? Here are some suggestions:
• “Country ahead of party” cannot apply only to Republicans. Trump’s critics (including me) have argued that Republicans ought to stand up for the rule of law against Trump’s authoritarian onslaught by setting ordinary partisan considerations aside. But that applies to Democrats as well. Since Trump’s presidency threatens the foundations of American democracy (and American capitalism, given Trump’s tendency to favor friends and punish critics in the business world), this is an all-hands-on-deck moment. The first priority must be to set limits on Trump’s power and to begin to repair the damage he has done.
• The best way to do that is through Congress, whose members have plenty of tools at their disposal to rein Trump in, should they choose to use them. Democrats should not hesitate to work with anti-Trump Republicans. As commentator Yascha Mounk notes, cross-partisan cooperation is essential. Authoritarians see their political opponents as enemies. Those who oppose Trump must find common cause with those on the other side of the political aisle who nonetheless recognize the danger we all face as Americans. That means thinking about how to win support from Republican voters this fall (not the Trump base, which so far has been unreachable), but also thinking about how to work with Republican members of Congress who understand what we’re all up against. If the Senate remains closely divided, perhaps it will be possible to convince a few Republicans to caucus with Democrats. If Republicans maintain their majorities, this outreach will be essential.
• Democrats cannot see November’s election as ordinary, where the priority may be to do what it takes to gain a short-term victory that can be translated into advancing favored policies or, at the least, blocking disagreeable ones. Even if Democrats do win control of one or both congressional chambers this fall, it will be necessary to keep the bigger picture in mind. Unless the Republican party changes and is no longer the party of Trump, constitutional democracy will remain in danger. Trump could, of course, win re-election in 2020. But even if he doesn’t, if the Republican party continues to field candidates in his image, the two-party American system virtually guarantees it will just be a matter of time before they gain control again — with a new Trump (or someone even more dangerous) at the helm. Everyone who is alarmed by Trump ought to think about how we can change the current dynamics of American politics. Part of this means changing the Republican party — a goal that will, of course, not be achieved by any particular election outcome this fall.
Some of this work is already going on. As Lara Putnam and Theda Skocpol’s penetrating research shows, “many local [anti-Trump] groups have deliberately reached out to Independents and disaffected Republicans, and they often self-consciously adopt names and ways of operating that allow them to remain welcoming and inclusive across partisan lines.” Win or lose this fall, Democrats and indeed all Americans would be well-served by this approach.
Chris Edelson is an assistant professor of government in American University’s School of Public Affairs. His latest book, “ Power Without Constraint: The Post 9/11 Presidency and National Security ,” was published in May 2016 by the University of Wisconsin Press.