BJP claims it has cornered more Jat votes in Shamli

Though the BJP lost Kairana Lok Sabha bypoll to the Opposition combined, the party claimed that it has still retained 40 per cent of jat support. The BJP pointed out it  cornered more Jat votes in Shamli, the Assembly segment with the highest concentration of Jats.

Kairana which turned out be the third laboratory of the joint-Opposition experiment  after Gorakhpur and Phulpur, saw BJP gaining a high of 50.6 per cent of votes in 2014 Lok Sabha poll under the Modi-wave, 38.2 per cent in 2017 Assembly polls, and 45.7 per cent in May 28 by poll.

“We have scored more votes of Jats in Shamli segment with the highest numbers of Jat population of over 70,000,” says Sanjeev Balyan, former Union Minister and MP from Muzaffarnagar, who was one of the key leader strategising in the bypoll.

There was a division of Jat votes but nearly 40 per cent still remained with the BJP while 60 per cent went to the LKD, backed by the SP-BSP, he said. Balyan claimed that voters would override the caste consideration in 2019 Lok Sabha poll. In Kairana when they would find no one of the stature of Prime Minister Narendra Modi standing up from the Opposition side.

In the Jat dominated Shamli village, BJP gained 25,800 votes in the bypoll, 500 more, in comparison to 2017 Assembly elections when the party got 25,300 votes. This is despite the low turnout of Jat voters in the constituency, asserted the BJP leader.

BJP lost on Jat votes in Thana Bhawan which is represented in UP Assembly by the State Sugarcane Minister Suresh Rana. Non-payment to sugarcane farmers in the areas had greatly angered the Jat farmers in the entire area. In  Nakur and Gangoh Assembly segments, BJP lost by 12,263 and 28,117 margins.

Unlike 2014 Lok Sabha polls when BJP garnered a part of Jatav votes (otherwise committed to BSP’s Mayawati) this time round BSP did not get Dalit votes though received “good backing” from ‘ati pichhda’ voters like Kashyaps (around 1.15 lakh), Saini (75,000), Pal (35,000) and Kumhar (25,000). Upper castes which combine Brahmin and Vaish around 1.15 lakh and Thakur 35,000 to 40,000 also supported the BJP.

According to party leaders, the Kairana bypoll did not generate a reverse polarisation among Hindu voters as was the case in the aftermath of 2013 communal disturbances.

Rashtriya Lok Dal  (RLD) of Ajit Singh did mange to resurrect itself from  steep dip in its popularity among Jats in 2014 when the former himself lost his election from Baghpat Lok Sabha.

The 2014 Lok Sabha poll in Kairana saw RLD receiving only 3.8 per cent votes and in 2017 Assembly polls around 7.7 per cent. RLD which has now collected 52 per cent votes (with SP + BSP) has now got back their Jat support by 60 per cent.

The two main communities of Jat and Muslims seemed to have partly patched up with each other after the bitter phase following 2013 communal riots. The RLD-SP-BSP-Congress alliance successfully  claimed the backing of  majority of 5.80 lakh Muslims, 2.5 lakh Dalits and a chunk of  over 1.5 lakh Jats in Kairana, accounting for roughly 60 per cent of the electorate.