* Flash flood watch until 6 a.m. Sunday *

10:35 a.m. update: It remains largely dry in the local area, with any rain of significance mainly to our west over West Virginia. This in mind, the morning lull was anticipated and showers continue to expand in the region. It’s a little too soon to make any major adjustments, especially given the air mass in place. The most recent run of the HRRR does a decent job in highlighting how things may play out over the next 12-18 hours via its simulated radar.

While we shouldn’t necessarily take the specifics as gospel in the image above, it does show that precipitation should continue to expand in the time ahead. It also suggests some heftier totals are possible in spots as it does so. Another new model run, from the NAM, also suggests we will continue to see rain increase in the hours ahead.

8:15 a.m. update: We’ve seen some sunny peeks this morning. That story may continue a while, but clouds are thickening again. The question for today might be exactly where the rain shield sets up. Some of the shorter range modeling suggests it could be largely to our west during the day. Other info from overnight doesn’t fully agree. For now, radar does feature most of the rain to our west, but there is some activity beginning to break out in northern Maryland as well. For now, let’s wait and see what happens over the next few hours.

TODAY’S DAILY DIGIT
A somewhat subjective rating of the day’s weather, on a scale of 0 to 10.

3/10: A good day to hang out inside, but there may be a window early to get a few things done outdoors.
EXPRESS FORECAST

Today: Increasingly rainy. Highs: Mid-70s to near 80.
Tonight: Rounds of rain. Lows: Upper 50s to low 60s.
Tomorrow: More rain, possibly tapering. Highs: 60s.

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FORECAST IN DETAIL

It’s a rainy few days ahead. Something we’re pretty used to at this point. Something that is getting a bit old. Once we get past the next few days, we might actually get a chance to dry out at least a little bit into next week. Before that, keep the umbrella handy and keep an eye out for standing and rising water. Don’t mess with that stuff if you see it.

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Today (Saturday): We’ll see rain off and on much of the day. Probably more on than off in the end. A low pressure that develops to our southeast decides to camp out for a while and continue to send us more moisture over time. There may be a relative lull in the morning, but we should see precipitation begin to redevelop in the area heading into the midday. With all the clouds and rain around, highs will struggle to get out of the 70s. We might even see readings fall off with time by mid-afternoon. Flooding will continue to be a concern, although this is somewhat better than the heavy downpours from thunderstorms. Medium

Tonight: Rain persists. There is some chance we see the heaviest rain of this event through the overnight hours. If so, the flooding risk may rise in spots, but again at least we are not dealing with multiple-inch-per-hour rates like in thunderstorms. With time, streams and rivers become a bigger issue as well. It’s cool as air continues to filter in off the ocean to the northeast, and lows settle to the upper 50s and lower 60s. Medium

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Tomorrow (Sunday): There’s not too much change in the situation around here, so expect more of the same. A low pressure to our southeast may begin to weaken a bit, but it will keep sending rain our way. With some luck it will be of less intensity than prior, but I wouldn’t guarantee it. It’s quite a bit cooler, with highs in the 60s. Medium

Tomorrow night: This storm finally starts to pull away Sunday night. It may not do so quickly enough for the rain threat to totally end, but we should be down to lighter stuff or more of a drizzle. Lows are in the 50s to around 60. Medium

A LOOK AHEAD

By Monday, we’re finally booting this storm out of the region. We may still be dealing with clouds and perhaps even a shower early, but it’s all out of here pretty quickly if that’s the case. Sun should break out with time. Highs make it to the mid-70s to around 80. Medium

We’ll warm it up a bit on Tuesday, but it is rather pleasant for June. Near 80 to low 80s should do it. Combine with relatively low humidity, and you’ll probably be enjoying! Some showers or storms may try to move in late in the day. Medium