The bypolls have been treated as an indicator of the political winds by the Opposition for some time now. The BJP, which has had little good news on that front, understandably played the results down, citing better showings at state elections. However, such obfuscation may not suffice any more.
The latest results for the four Lok Sabha and 11 Assembly seats from a number of states aren’t looking great for it. The BJP barely scraped through in Palghar while taking on its oldest ally Shiv Sena. That too, because the opposition vote got divided.
The other Maharashtra seat, the NCP in alliance with the Congress snatched from the BJP. But what should be worrisome for the BJP is the steady decline in UP, a state which brought it to power in 2014. After the Gorakhpur and Phulpur debacle, it has now lost Kairana to the RLD. The Jat-dominated RLD took the risk of putting up a Muslim woman candidate, reviving its old Jat-Muslim social entente. The BJP had swept the LS and Assembly polls due to Hindu consolidation.
The Jat-Muslim antagonism post Muzaffarnagar riots in 2013 was seen as a reason, particularly in western UP. The recent opposition unity has turned that consolidation on its head. The RLD, backed by the SP and Congress, with the BSP’s tacit support, had the BJP biting the dust. Proving UP CM Yogi Adityanath is no vote catcher, and the traditional economics dependent on caste compacts is too strong to be disrupted by temporary animosities. In Bihar, Jokihat showed Tejashwi Yadav is holding the RJD fort rather well. No wonder Nitish Kumar has been appearing restive, his JD(U) candidate lost badly. In Meghalaya, the Congress won the bypoll to become the single largest party. In Jharkhand, the JMM held ground. With no prominent tribal leader in its fold, the BJP stood little chance.
The bypolls seemed to reinforce the message the opposition tried to give from Karnataka. Overall, Narendra Modi may still be way ahead of his nearest rival, but the BJP is certainly not in the same position. And a wobbly economy and spiralling prices are not a helpful background score.
