Survey: Midwest economy still steaming ahead

OMAHA, Neb. — The surging business conditions in nine Midwest and Plains states will be tested by trade conflicts and other factors that could slow growth, an economist said in a survey report issued Friday.

The Mid-America Business Conditions Index recorded its highest mark in 14 years last month, hitting 67.3 in May, compared with 64.5 in April, according to the report. The March figure was 62.1.

This is the 18th straight month the index has remained above growth neutral 50.0, pointing to strong growth for the region over the next three to six months.

“The Goldilocks economy — not too hot, not too cold — will be tested in the months ahead as trade skirmishes and potential wars slow growth and contribute to higher prices for inputs such as steel and aluminum,” said Creighton University economist Ernie Goss, who oversees the survey. “These higher prices will slow growth and push the Federal Reserve to be more aggressive in raising interest rates in the weeks and months ahead.”

The survey results are compiled into a collection of indexes ranging from zero to 100. Survey organizers say any score above 50 suggests growth in that factor. A score below that suggests decline. The survey covers Arkansas, Iowa, Kansas, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota, Oklahoma and South Dakota.

Minnesota’s overall index rose to 64.2 in May from April’s 63.6. Index components were new orders at 75.6, production or sales at 69.1, delivery lead time at 56.9, inventories at 55.8 and employment at 63.6. Over the past 12 months, the Minnesota economy has added 2,800 durable-goods manufacturing jobs for a growth of 1.4 percent and has added 1,900 nondurable-goods manufacturing jobs for a growth of 1.6 percent.