Kairana bypoll: Why is it a popularity test for BJP?

Kairana constituency in the politically crucial state of Uttar Pardesh has assumed great importance in the run up to the 2019 Lok Sabha polls and the polls will also see a joint Opposition taking on BJP.

While four parties – Congress, Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD), Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) and Samajwadi Party (SP) – have come together  to snatch away Kairana from BJP’s hands, the latter is leaving no stone unturned to retain power in Kairana.

In the last elections in 2014 BJP had alone managed to get 565,000 votes while, the four parties had together managed to get 532 ,000 votes. BJP’s Hukum Singh had won with ease in the Lok Sabha poll in the aftermath of the 2013 Muzaffarnagar riots, getting 5,65,909 votes against SP’s Nahind Hasan, who polled 2,29,081.

However, it was a split opposition and the unwavering support of the Jats that had helped the BJP score a spectacular sweep of western Uttar Pradesh in the 2014 general elections that continued into the 2017 assembly polls as well. The BJP had won four of Kairana’s five assembly seats.

But after losing two by-elections in Gorakhpur and Phulpur two months ago, the real test of BJP’s popularity in Uttar Pradesh will be Kairana as it will be a mandate that the party has come to power not just because of anti-incumbency but because of people’s support for BJP.

The BJP claims that Gujjars (1.50 lakh, OBC), about 55,000 upper caste Brahmins, Sainis (1.80 lakh OBC) and a range of castes like Kashyaps, Pal and Prjapatis will back the party. The BJP is also counting on the support from section of the Jatav voters who are traditional supporters of the BSP.

The BJP’s campaign in Kairana is led by Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath, who has a lot to prove after the defeat of the BJP in the March Lok Sabha bypolls in his home constituency Gorakhpur and Pahulpur, the constituency of Deputy Chief Minister Keshav Prasad Maurya.