His high chances are more a reflection of a weakening field than a sudden resurgence
NO TENNIS player has ever dominated a surface like Rafael Nadal has on clay. The 31-year-old Spaniard has won ten of his 16 grand-slam titles at the French Open, and will be hoping to make it 11 over the next fortnight at Roland Garros stadium. Only a brave punter would bet against him. Betfred, a bookmaker, is giving odds of 2/5 that he will triumph on the Court Philippe Chatrier—an implied chance of about 71%, though bookies tend to exaggerate these by a couple of percentage points in order to guarantee a profit. Only three times since 2005 have the bookmakers pegged the men’s favourite at shorter odds.
Yet that is more a reflection of a weakening field than a sudden resurgence in Mr Nadal’s bicep-bulging play. Granted, he won two slams last year, after a three-year dry spell. But ratings maintained by TennisAbstract.com, a tennis-statistics website, suggest that the current version of “The King of Clay” would lose his crown two times out of three to the peak version of himself, aged 22 in 2009.
That the champions and contenders of today are older than those of yore is well-documented. But eventually Father Time catches up with even the spriteliest athletes. In Paris, Mr Nadal simply seems to be the last man standing. Roger Federer no longer competes at Roland Garros, in order to save his 36-year-old legs for the Wimbledon tournament, which takes place two weeks later. Sir Andy Murray is missing with a hip injury. Novak Djokovic is still recovering from an operation on his elbow in January: having lost six of his 13 matches since, he is seeded 20th. Stan Wawrinka has won just four of ten matches in 2018.
To make things even easier, both Mr Djokovic and Mr Wawrinka are in the bottom half of the draw, along with Dominic Thiem and Alexander Zverev, the two young stars of the professional tour. Mr Nadal may never get an easier chance to add to his voluminous trophy cabinet. As the chart shows, however, he should be wary of being too complacent. The two biggest favourites in Betfred’s data—Rafa at the French Open in 2009, and Roger at the Australian Open in 2011—both finished empty-handed.