The match billed as the most valuable game in football features two teams who know all about the Premier League and what it means to play amongst the elite. Fulham finished the season in third, losing their final game when a win would have seen them promoted automatically, while Villa were only one place further back as both are fully deserving of their place here.
With so much on the line it’s no wonder that nine of the last 14 Championship play-off finals have finished with fewer than two goals and both teams have scored in just three of the last 17 years. Furthermore, the four semi-final legs saw just four goals between them and with these teams ranking 1st and 4th best defensively in the league since the start of January we look set for another tough low scoring encounter. Under 2.5 Goals looks a banker but it’s worth taking the longer odds and backing Under 1.5, which happens to have landed in five of Villa’s last seven matches as they’ve conceded just twice.
Fulham head into this match as favourites based on their record during the regular season and this is actually the 11th time in the last 13 years that the top seeded team in the Championship play-offs has advanced to the final and the previous 10 have an excellent W6-D2-L2 record. However, in the last two seasons the four meetings between these teams have been evenly split with all won by the home side and with so little between the pair we can imagine this finishing goalless in 90 minutes for the third time in six years.
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