Heavy rain and storms are forecast to put a damper on Memorial Day observances and holiday gatherings this weekend as a river of tropical moisture across the Caribbean Sea, Cuba and Florida drenches the state, regardless of whether a tropical storm spins out of it and moves in to the Gulf of Mexico.
The National Hurricane Center is watching an associated low pressure system in the Caribbean, saying conditions could become favorable for development as the system moves northward. On Tuesday morning, the Hurricane Center put the chance of storm formation at about 50 percent over the next five days.
Either way, additional intense rainfall is forecast across Florida, causing localized flooding in areas already saturated by rain that has fallen since May 14. In Daytona Beach, 7.96 inches of rain has fallen as of Tuesday morning. The area is on track to have one of its wettest Mays ever, but is unlikely to surpass the May 2009 record of 22.33 inches.
The national Weather Prediction Center indicates at least four inches of rain could fall across the region over the next seven days, with even higher amounts in isolated locations. Given the recent rainfall, forecasters in Weather Service offices said it's possible flood watches could be issued across the state over the weekend. The Weather Prediction Center indicates SoutheastFlorida could get as much as seven inches of rain, with higher amounts from isolated storms.
A break in the clouds could allow for a little more sunshine on Wednesday and Thursday, allowing things to drain a little before the next deluges arrive. But, that could also allow temperatures to climb a little higher which could lend a little severity to the afternoon thunderstorms, generating a little higher winds in the 40-to-50 mph range and frequent lightning, said forecasters with the National Weather Service. Average rainfall totals on Wednesday and Thursday are forecast to range from a half-inch along the coast to 1-to-1.5 inches inland, with 2-to-3 inches possible in localized locations during heavy thunderstorms.
The amount of rain the potential system could bring to Volusia and Flagler counties depends on its path northward through the Gulf of Mexico. For now, the national Weather Prediction Center indicates the heaviest rain will fall on the western half of the peninsula. A slower storm motion could increase the localized flooding threat, said forecasters with the Weather Service office in Jacksonville.
In Melbourne, Weather Service forecasters say "much uncertainty" still exists between the models regarding the potential low pressure system.
"For now it appears the weak low will track northward toward the Louisiana coast" on Saturday and then further inland, forecasters said. Given the broad associated pattern of clouds and storminess, it's a recipe for a potentially "very wet holiday weekend."
Offshore, boating may not be an option this weekend either, with small craft advisories possibly by Saturday.
Some rivers in the Weather Service's Tampa Bay region already are experiencing flooding. Weather Service forecasters said Tuesday river levels should drop during the slight break in the heavy rain on Wednesday and Thursday but will have to be monitored closely over the weekend.
Storm total rainfall since May 13, Reported by the National Weather Service, Melbourne office:
Locally:
9.34 Oak Hill , Volusia, CoCoRaHS
8.96 DeLand , Volusia, CoCoRaHS
8.56 Pierson , Volusia, FAWN
8.53 DeLand , Volusia, CoCoRaHS
8.26 Port Orange , Volusia, CoCoRaHS
8.04 Ormond Beach , Volusia, CoCoRaHS
7.97 Lake Woodruff , Volusia, RAWS
7.39 DeLand , Volusia, CoCoRaHS
7.30 DeLand , Volusia, CoCoRaHS
7.28 Daytona Beach Airport, Volusia, ASOS
7.20 DeLeon Springs , Volusia, CoCoRaHS
7.02 New Smyrna Beach, Volusia, CoCoRaHS
6.28 DeBary , Volusia, CoCoRaHS
Elsewhere in the region:
17.25 Palm City, Martin, CoCoRaHS
17.12 Palm City, Martin, CoCoRaHS
16.41 Jensen Beach, Martin, CoCoRaHS
15.21 Palm City, Martin, CoCoRaHS
14.55 Stuart, Martin, CoCoRaHS
14.47 Port Salerno, Martin, COOP
14.13 Stuart, Martin, CoCoRaHS
14.02 Port St. Lucie, Saint Lucie, CoCoRaHS
12.98 Port St. Lucie, Saint Lucie, SFWMD
12.67 Savannas Preserve, Saint Lucie, SFWMD
12.67 10 Mile Creek, Saint, SFWMD
12.47 Tradition W, Saint, CoCoRaHS
12.01 Indiantown SW, Martin, CoCoRaHS
11.72 Port St. Lucie, Saint Lucie, CoCoRaHS
11.71 Stuart WTP, Martin, COOP
11.61 Fort Pierce, Saint Lucie, CoCoRaHS
11.25 Jupiter, Martin, CoCoRaHS
10.91 Fort Pierce, Saint Lucie, SFWMD
10.37 Stuart, Martin, SFWMD
10.20 Titusville, Brevard, CoCoRaHS
10.08 Nettles Island, Saint Lucie, COOP
9.72 Mims, Brevard, CoCoRaHS
9.63 Clermont, Lake, COOP
9.60 Melbourne, Brevard, CoCoRaHS
9.53 Okahumpka, Lake, FAWN
8.62 Sebastian, Indian River, CoCoRaHS
8.59 St. Lucie West, Saint, FAWN
8.38 Lake Okeechobee/Taylor Creek Lake O, Okeechobee,
8.20 Palm Shores, Brevard, CoCoRaHS
8.08 Okee Field Station, Okeechobee, SFWMD
8.08 Astatula, Lake, CoCoRaHS
8.01 Okeechobee County Arpt, Okeechobee, AWOS
7.85 Palm Bay, Brevard, CoCoRaHS
7.75 Vero Beach, Indian River, CoCoRaHS
7.69 Apopka, Orange, FAWN
7.68 Sebastian, Indian River, CoCoRaHS
7.66 Windermere, Orange, COOP
7.66 Orlando, Orange, CoCoRaHS
7.66 Micco, Brevard, CoCoRaHS
7.65 Chuluota, Seminole, CoCoRaHS
7.47 Treasure Coast Arpt, Saint, ASOS
7.43 Maxcy Property North, Osceola, SFWMD
7.39 Okeechobee, Okeechobee, FAWN
7.27 Ocoee, Orange, CoCoRaHS
7.21 Vero Beach, Indian River, CoCoRaHS
7.18 Satellite Beach, Brevard, CoCoRaHS
7.01 Taylor Creek Conserve, Okeechobee, SFWMD
7.01 Altamonte Springs, Seminole, CoCoRaHS
6.83 Melbourne WFO, Brevard, COOP
6.78 Leesburg Airport, Lake, ASOS
6.78 Bay Lake, Orange, CoCoRaHS
6.74 Orlando, Orange, CoCoRaHS
6.65 Cocoa, Brevard, CoCoRaHS
6.60 Kenansville, Osceola, COOP
6.54 Oakland, Lake, CoCoRahs
6.51 Umatilla, Lake, FAWN
6.50 Paisley, Lake, RAWS
6.47 Winter Springs, Seminole, CoCoRaHS
6.41 Lisbon, Lake, COOP
6.25 Vero Beach, Indian River, CoCoRaHS
6.18 Mt. Plymouth, Lake, COOP
6.06 Vero Beach, Indian River, CoCoRaHS
6.03 Orange, Orange, CoCoRaHS
5.97 Sanford Airport, Seminole, ASOS
5.86 Union Park, Orange, CoCoRaHS
5.84 Winter Garden, Orange, CoCoRaHS
5.72 Lake Tohopekaliga, Osceola, SFWMD
5.51 Orlando Executive Arpt, Orange, ASOS
5.44 Kenansville North, Osceola, FAWN
5.39 Vero Beach Airport, Indian River, ASOS
5.35 Oviedo, Seminole, CoCoRaHS
5.11 Groveland, Lake, CoCoRaHS
4.92 Shingle Creek, Orange, SFWMD
4.75 Yeehaw Junction, Osceola, SFWMD
4.53 Sanford, Seminole, CoCoRaHS