Could Republicans jump ship in 2020?

You don’t have to look for a poll confirming President Trump’s lock on the Republican Party. He maintains over 80 percent approval in most surveys; Republicans generally back his positions whatever the topic (e.g., the Russia investigation is a witch hunt, the tax cut is glorious, Obamacare is horrible). However, supporting a president under constant attack by their political enemies is not the same as picking him for their nominee a second time, according to at least one poll.

Just 36 percent of [all] voters say they would vote for Trump over a generic Democratic candidate in 2020, compared with 44 percent who would pick the Democrat, the poll shows. One in five voters, 20 percent, are undecided. . . . Overall, a 60 percent majority of voters think Trump should be challenged in the 2020 primaries, compared with 26 percent who don’t think so. Among Republicans, there is some appetite for a Trump primary challenger: 38 percent think someone should run against him, but half do not think so.

That might not be hugely encouraging for a GOP challenger — although 50 percent of the party wanting no challenger is hardly anything for Trump to brag about — but the midterms may considerably improve a challenger’s prospects. A wipeout for Republicans might well make primary voters, not to mention activists and donors, nervous about risking both the presidency and Congress in 2020.

Moreover, in the abstract, Republicans take Trump’s side in the Russia investigation. However, when they have a concrete, detailed report from Robert S. Mueller III that may recommend impeachment or suggest indictment is appropriate after he leaves office, his supporters may get nervous. By 2020, Paul Manafort’s trial will be in the rearview mirror; Trump will either have consented to an interview with Mueller, taken the Fifth (setting off a political firestorm) or be fending off a subpoena; Michael Cohen and/or Roger Stone may have been indicted or have flipped by then; and a whole lot more will be known about Trump’s finances.

Sure, the hardcore Trump supporters are not likely to bolt. They’ve decided to suspend judgement and inhabit a fact-free world. Whatever the Mueller findings, Trump will provide them with a rationalization for discounting or disbelieving them. This group, however, may not be a majority of primary voters.

To their chagrin, a GOP challenger may find that a weak incumbent president draws several opponents, who split the anti-Trump vote among them. One can imagine a right-wing contender such as Sen. Tom Cotton (R-Ark.) or Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Tex.) (provided the latter wins his race against Democratic congressman Beto O’Rourke in convincing fashion) who is generally supportive of Trump’s rabid nationalism entering the race along with more outspoken critics (e.g., Sen. Jeff Flake of Arizona, Sen. Bob Corker of Tennessee), as well as someone trying to modernize and rationalize the policy agenda of the GOP (e.g., Ohio Gov. John Kasich). And then there is U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley, who has managed to endear herself to the evangelical Christian base (by virtue of her solid pro-Israel record) and even earn praise from tough #NeverTrump critics. By 2020 she may have long departed the United Nations and become the president’s most formidable adversary, not to mention a perceived solution to the GOP’s problem with minorities and women.

If a few of these challengers jump into the race, one can imagine Trump skating by with 30-35 percent of the primary vote, if not more. Furthermore, Trump will also control the Republican National Committee, which is already bent on rigging the system (really!) by possibly limiting or eliminating debates.

In sum, we will have a much better idea after the midterms and after the Mueller report’s release about whether a Trump challenge is feasible. (Watch carefully Don Blankenship’s West Virginia challenge to the “sore loser” rule there; if such laws are held unconstitutional, challengers may feel free to enter the GOP primary, but if they lose, run as independents.) The bigger question is whether the GOP is by 2020 ready to repudiate Trump, and if so, whether anyone can wash the stain off a party that enabled such an unfit, anti-democratic leader.