A nebulous mixture of humidity, hot air and clouds is giving forecasters pause this week — not because of its state of ferocity, but because of where it’s located.
The cluster of showers and thunderstorms in the Caribbean Sea east of Belize will probably track north into the Gulf of Mexico over the next five days. Once it gets there, some forecast models are suggesting that it could develop into a tropical storm. At the very least, it looks as though it will be a major rain event for the Gulf states east of Louisiana.
On Tuesday, the National Hurricane Center was giving this blob of clouds a 40 percent chance of developing into something more significant over the next five days as it tracks north toward the Gulf Coast.
But even if the storm does not develop, the broader system is going to dump a lot of rain on the Southeast.
The National Weather Service predicts that as much as seven inches of rain could fall in southern Mississippi and Alabama as well as Florida. Southern Florida is already experiencing one of its rainiest Mays in recent history, and it could reach the top 10 wettest Mays, according to Capital Weather Gang contributor Brian McNoldy. As of Monday, Miami had 8.52 inches of rain this month, which was more than three times the normal amount through May 21.
Even though the National Weather Service defines June 1 as the start of hurricane season, May tropical storms are not uncommon. It seems as if hurricane season is starting earlier each year. In 2017, the first storm formed April 19. In 2016, the first storm formed in January and managed to reach hurricane status. Tropical Storm Bonnie followed in late May. In 2015, Tropical Storm Ana formed in early May.
Since 1851, we've recorded 32 Atlantic tropical cyclones during the month of May. Most have formed in the western Atlantic or Caribbean, w/ very few in the Gulf. Only 4 hurricanes have been recorded in May, with no May U.S. hurricane landfalls. pic.twitter.com/eD0UhOfzXI
— Michael Lowry (@MichaelRLowry) May 22, 2018
However, nearly all of the early storms we know about in the Atlantic developed in the Western Caribbean or Atlantic Ocean. If this week’s system spins up in the Gulf of Mexico, it would be the second early storm to do so, according to the FEMA’s Michael Lowry.
If this area of thunderstorms does turn into a tropical storm, its name would be Alberto. The last time Alberto was on the hurricane-name list was 2012, and it also formed in May.